Daily Report, Major and Cross Currencies: February 13, 2012

Technical Major Currencies

EUR/USD



The pair has declined violently on Friday closing below the pivotal level of 1.3230. Indeed, the candlestick structure formed with the weekly closing should bring further downside movements supported by the negativity appearing on Stochastic. But, the pair has opened with a gap as seen on the secondary four-hour graph; thus, we will stay aside until the price behaviors define the kind of this gap. Note that, coming below 1.3155-Friday's low- will bring panic sell-off actions while clearing SMA 100 may negate the bearishness of Stochastic.

The trading range for this week is among key support at 1.2860 and key resistance at 1.3550.

The general trend over short term basis is to the downside, targeting 1.1865 as far as areas of 1.3550 areas remain intact.



GBP/USD



Cable has moved sharply downwards achieving a negative daily closing below the pivotal level of 1.5785 as seen on the provided chart. The subsidiary image shows the bearish candlestick patterns formed during the past three days. At the same time, RSI 14 over four-hour interval shows stability below the value of 50.00 and thus, the correctional second wave of the suggested Elliott might have been limited around 1.5925 zones. In result, additional bearishness might be seed during this week but not before clearing 1.5730 areas decisively.

The trading range for this week is among key support at 1.5370 and key resistance at 1.6165.

The general trend over short term basis is to the downside, targeting 1.4225 as far as areas of 1.6875 areas remain intact.



USD/JPY



The pair has closed above 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire upside rally from 75.50 to 79.50 zones after reaching all upside technical targets proposed during the past week. Actually, the bullish journey which we caught when RSI 14 has formed the positive divergence around 76.00 zones has taken momentum indicators towards overbought areas. Therefore, we will stay aside until the pair unloads the negativity of indicators to enter the new upside wave in the proper time since the weekly basis is defiantly positive and we will discuss that in the coming reports.

The trading range for this week is among key support at 76.00 and key resistance now at 79.55.

The general trend over short term basis is to the upside, targeting 87.45 as far as areas of 75.20 remain intact.



USD/CHF



The pair has inclined achieving a daily closing above the middle line of Keltner channel on Friday while Stochastic and RVI 14 remain positive as seen on the provide daily chart. Therefore, the pair may move higher during this week but not before penetrating 0.9175 zones in order to support the bullish scenario. Our bullish predictions depend on the solidity of the support areas between 0.9105 and 0.9030, the bullish candlesticks formation and the positivity of indicators. A break above 0.9210 will assist bulls to support their long positions.

The trading range for this week is among key support at 0.8875 and key resistance at 0.9400.

 The general trend over short term basis is to the upside, targeting 0.9950 as far as areas of 0.8850 areas remain intact.


USD/CAD



The pair rallied on Friday to reach levels just below 1.0050 resistance and reverse again, the rally grabbed the price to end the week above the 200-days SMA, while stochastic is leaving oversold areas attempting to gather bullish momentum. Meanwhile, we are still trading below some key technical resistance levels among 1.0050-1.0075; accordingly, we will remain on the sidelines this morning awaiting further developments.

The trading range for this week is expected among the key support at 0.9890 and the key resistance at 1.0075.

The short term trend is to the upside targeting 1.0650 with steady daily closing above 0.9900.


AUD/USD



After testing areas above the ascending support of the main short term ascending channel around 1.0650; the pair rebounded this morning to test the key intraday resistance at 1.0740. Stochastic is gaining bullish momentum, while RSI found resistance near 50 level, a breach above 1.0740 resistance alongside confirmation by RSI crossing 50 shall indicate further bullishness for the session, while over weekly basis we anticipate the upside bias to remain dominant however 1.0650 should remain intact over daily closing basis to maintain our outlook.

The trading range for this week is expected among the key support at 1.0600 and the key resistance at 1.1000.

The short-term trend is to the upside targeting 1.1079 so long as 1.0130 remains intact.



NZD/USD



The pair retested the breached resistance which turns into support now around 0.8250 to rebound once more, this horizontal level coincides with the main short term ascending trend-line, the rebound from this potential support suggests further gains over intraday basis, however over the weekly time horizon; some negativity is seen on Momentum indicators as Stochastic has been extremely overbought and currently attempting to leave overbought areas, while MACD is attempting a bearish crossover.

The trading range for this week is expected among the key support at 0.8225 and the key resistance at 0.8550

The short-term trend is to the upside, targeting 0.8840 as long 0.7600 remain intact.



Technical Cross Currencies

GBP/JPY




The pair is fluctuating around 23.6% Fibonacci correction of the downside movement shown above, while it is stable within the ascending correctional channel, which lifted the pair from the bottom of 117.27. Therefore, we still expect the upside correction to extend this week, targeting mainly 124.00 and 125.65, noting that stability above 121.15 is necessary for our positive outlook to prevail.

The trading range for this week is among the major support at 121.15 and the major resistance at 125.65.

The short-term trend is to the downside as far as 150.00 remains intact targeting 112.00.



EUR/JPY



The pair is still moving within the ascending correctional channel shown above, while SMA 50 supports the pair from below. In general, the upside bias remains valid this week, supported by the positivity seen with the opening today. Our main targets are at 104.25 and then 106.00, but stability above 101.40 is required for our expectations to prevail.

The trading range for this week is among the major support at 101.00 and the major resistance at 105.15.

The short-term trend is to the downside as far as 123.30 remains intact, targeting 94.80.



EUR/GBP



SMA 50 stopped the pair's negative momentum again, where the royal pair rebounded to the upside approaching the critical resistance around 0.8420. In general, we still need the pair to breach one of the critical levels in order to confirm the pair's next move. The first level is the main resistance at 0.8420, while a breach of this level should activate our positive scenario, targeting 0.8600. The second level is the support of 0.8310, where a breach of this level should send the pair again inside the descending channel.

The trading range for this week is among the major support at 0.8170 and the major resistance at 0.8600.

The short-term trend is to the upside as far as 0.8170 remains intact, targeting 1.0370.