EURUSD Back Down Testing the 100 and 200 hour MA at 1.3123

The EURUSD has closed the last 2 hourly bars above the 100 and 200 hour MA level (blue and green line). The price is below the levels now (at 1.3123) and looks toward a break of the midpoint of the move from Friday’s high to the low today for confirmation of more selling interest.  A close on the hour above the 1.3123 will discredit the move lower. Market liquidity is limited in afternoon trading so be aware. Other key levels below include the 1.3094-98 level

Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision tonight at 10:30 PM ET

The expectation is for a decline to 4% from 4.25% . The reasons for the change is because of slow employment growth, low inflation, and concerns of the effects of a persistently strong AUD.  Click on the picture below for a visual snap shot of the key economic releases and the recent history (over the last year).   Of note is the job change.  Over the last 12 months a total of only 3,000 jobs have been created, with the last two months shedding 36.8K.  Retail Sales today came out weaker than expected at -0.1%. CPI inflation YoY is down to 3.1% from a peak of 3.6%.  In the 1st quarter, a 1.6% increase from a year ago should be replaced with a much lower reading. This should help to bring inflation down even further.   Consumer Confidence in December reached -8.3 before rebounding in the current month.  A positive is the global growth is improving which should help.


From a technical perspective the price came off the highest level since August 2011 today on the back of the weaker Retail Sales. The 100 hour MA and trendline support comes in at the 1.0700 level. A move below this should lead to further downward pressure in the new trading day. On the topside a move above the 1.0753 targets the high at 1.0792 with a break of that level targeting 1.0844.



usd/sgd bounces off Oct-2011 lows.



usd/cnh trading in a downward channel.



usd/twd finding some resistance on the bottom of this channel.