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Swiss KOF disappointment

By:

Tim Clayton

27-10-2006

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The Swiss currency strengthened to highs around 1.2525 against the dollar on Thursday and also strengthened to near 1.59 against the Euro from 1.5940 as the franc gained some support from firm domestic economic data. The currency was also boosted to some extent by comments from Finance Minister Merz who stated that he was concerned over the weak franc and backed the case for higher interest rates. This suggests that the government will back further interest rate increases in 2007.

A downgrading of US interest rate expectations will limit the risk of near-term franc selling, especially if there is a move to curb short yen positions as this would potentially trigger a wider reduction in low-yield currency positions.

The Swiss KOF leading indicator weakened to 2.00 in October from a revised 2.19 in September which will dampen immediate optimism over growth trends.

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