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---Medium and Long term trends are being set --
By: Nexum Capital Markets - 17-11-2008
0votesLast week we saw another group of ups and downs in a wide and volatile market. Once again, an "inoperable" market we saw. We decided to step back and see the fireworks (or better said, Dynamite) as we believe trading in an environment like this one would be risking our client’s money. Now we begin our analysis trying to identify what will be the medium and long term trend. Rate cuts are working strangely now-a-days; some currencies appreciate as their central banks cut rates and others do the opposite. During the week we’ll get minutes for the BOE and for the FED meetings, it will be key to try and find a definitive perspective by bank officials, if there is none… things will continue to move erratically.Remember a famous phrase from Wall Street:"Markets can behave Irrational, far more time than Investors can remain patient."The fundamental side of trading begins the week on Monday with Euro Zone Trade Balance, later on the day we get Empire Manufacturing for the US. On Tuesday we get the Net Tic Flows for the USA, this number could be pretty good due to the deleveraging we’ve been experimenting on the last few weeks. Wednesday will bring the minutes of the BOE meeting in which they decided to cut the rate by 1.5%, later on the day we will see US CPI, Housing Starts and the Minutes of the FOMC. Both these minutes will give us further information on where things are going, and how the decreasing or even null pressure of inflation will continue to give central banks the space to continue to cut rates and aid the credit crunch. On Thursday it will be important to keep an eye on Philly Fed Reports. Friday will bring a load of releases for Europe and some appearances for the US but nothing too important, however it remains key to be aware of what is going on every hour of the day. Let’s find that trend and use it to our advantage.Important ReleasesDay/SessionEuropeUSAsiaEZ Trade BalanceMondayUPSTABLESTABLEUS PPI, TIC FLOWSTuesdaySTABLEDOWNSTABLE
BOE MINUTES, US CPI, Housing Starts, FED MINUTESWednesdayDOWNUPSTABLEPhilly FEDThursdayDOWNUPSTABLEFridayDOWNSTABLECLOSED
HIGH:
1.2850
LOW:
1.2400
CLOSE:
1.2700
Buying in levels near 1.2450.
·
Take Profit 1:1.2550
·
Take Profit 2: 1.2680
All comments and opinions are solely those of the writer and are not in any way comments or opinions of Nexum Capital or its affiliates. Additional information is available upon request. Information in this publication has been obtained from sources believed by the writer to be reliable, but the accuracy, completeness and interpretation are not guaranteed and have not been independently verified.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and, due to the rapidly changing nature of currency markets, may quickly become outdated. The opinions and information presented do
Next Analysis: Equities sliding and long end of government bond curve rallying. This could spell more strength for USD and JPY.Content Provided by:
Nexum Capital Markets
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