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A steady week after a while of volatility
By: Nexum Capital Markets - 21-07-2008
0votesThis week will give us some space to rethink our strategies as we get out of a serious pair of weeks of high volatility. We got hike rates and rate cuts in our mind, as well as growth and inflationary concerns. It is rather important to get our thoughts together and prepare a plan to benefit the most out of the volatility we will continue to have in following months. The world is adjusting to current problems and currencies will play a key role on every single problem, including expensive oil and commodities. We are looking at typical cycle reversal formations for almost all currencies, and this type of “high volatility/low volatility” will keep on going until market decides if it is time to adjust the cycle or continue with it for a while longer.
Let’s begin the week on Tuesday as Secretary Paulson will have another appearance, this has been pretty common lately but it is still important to keep an eye on what he says due to the importance of what he thinks and the way he can move the market. Wednesday brings the minutes for the Bank of England last meeting and the Beige Book. Both of these releases work very similar, they will give us an inside look at what is going on trough central bank official’s minds. This breaks up the economy and shows us what really is going on. It is very important to analyze what comes out on these releases and include these findings on your plan. Thursday we get German IFO, Euro Zone Current Account and US Existing Home Sales. On the European side we should watch closely the numbers printed on the German IFO; Current Account cant come out very good as we saw Trade Balance read poorly last week. For the US we have Existing Home Sales and it will surely have some impact on the current Fannie Freddy problem and how stock markets are reacting to it. Finally on Friday we get US Durable Goods and New Home Sales. They will print poorly so expect some adjustment on price action, however these releases are easily anticipated so don’t wait until you see the actual release to act on them.
Next Analysis: USD remains range bound - Morning Session - GMTContent Provided by:
Nexum Capital Markets
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