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Central Bancs take the Stage
By: Nexum Capital Markets - 04-08-2008
0votes2008 has been a year where rate differentials and rate decisions have influenced strong movements in price action. These week won’t be different if we see any movement by either Central Bank. The market is anticipating that all ECB, BOE and FED will decide to mantain rates unchanged. However comments by ECB and the FED will be determinant into defining where currencies are going.
The week will revolve around the rate decisions by central banks. On Tuesday we get Euro Zone Retail Sales, this will be important to see what euro zone is going to face with its growing problems. We also have the FOMC announcing their rate decision. They will probably keep rates unchanged but will surely be hawkish about attacking inflation, they will also remark that growth problems are still on the radar but they are fading out and as they continue to do that the FED will have some space to tighten credit conditions. Wednesday looks like halftime, it gives us the opportunity to analyze what happened with the FOMC and prepare for what’s coming our way with ECB and BOE. Thursday brings ECB and BOE deciding what to do with their interest rates. Both will keep them unchanged and Trichet will probably state again that Yes they have problems with growth but that he is also very concerned with Inflation. This tells us that rate cuts are not around the corner, but it also tells us that Euro Zone is up for a big challenge and very big problems if they don’t control inflation as they head into growth and credit problems.
Important Releases
Day/Session Europe US Asia Monday DOWN UP STABLE EZ Retail Sales, FOMC Decision Tuesday DOWN STABLE DOWN Wednesday DOWN STABLE STABLE ECB, BOEGer. Trade Balance And Current Account Thursday UP DOWN STABLE Friday STABLE STABLE CLOSED EUR/USD is still trading horizontally. Let’s see if this week gets the pair out of the range and shoots to either side. Stochastic and CCI are looking bullish at the time.
Our analysis indicates Long EUR/USD every time it reaches 1.5500• Take Profit 1:1.5650
• Take Profit 2: 1.5700
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