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Fundamentals continue to be the main determinant on trend setting
By: Nexum Capital Markets - 24-08-2008
0votesEUR/USD managed to remain below 1.4800 and it now remains on the range between 1.4600-1.5100. This week we get a load of releases that will clear up the view and allow us to look beyond the current situation; this will help us determine ‘if-and-when’ Euro might begin to recover lost territory and head up back over 1.50 or if the USD will continue its long time anticipated correction and head back below 1.45. Keep an eye to key releases during the week. (specially FOMC minutes).
We have a load of releases during the week, to make it simpler we’re going to mention those which are the most important, those which you HAVE to keep an eye on so that you don’t loose the notion of what is going on and where the pair is heading. On Monday we get Existing Home Sales and a bunch of releases including home prices, this will be important due to the relevance on the housing crisis in the US economy. Tuesday brings German GDP and US Consumer Confidence, they both help the USD as GDP reads lower for Germany and Consumer Confidence begins to spike once again for U.S.A.. However this day we have the most important release of the week, FOMC minutes; here we will see what central bankers were thinking and what the FED could do on the next few months to improve the situation with the economy. Wednesday will print the number for Durable Goods in the US, also a very important indicator of the economy improving or accelerating into a recession. Thursday we get German CPI but more importantly we will see US GDP. Finally on Friday we get Euro Zone CPI, it might print lower, so rate cut could begin to look a bit more possible and this could drive the pair even lower.
Important Releases Day/Session Europe US Asia Existing Home Sales Monday DOWN UP STABLE FOMC, Consumer Confidence, GER. IFO Tuesday DOWN DOWN STABLE Durable Goods Wednesday STABLE UP UP US GDP, GER CPI Thursday DOWN DOWN UP EZ CPI Unemployment Friday DOWN DOWN CLOSED HIGH: 1.4900
LOW: 1.4600
CLOSE: 1.4700Our analysis indicates Short EUR/USD every time it reaches 1.4850
• Take Profit 1:1.4740
• Take Profit 2: 1.4650
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Nexum Capital Markets
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