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Fundamentals remain unchanged
By: Nexum Capital Markets - 11-08-2008
0votesLast week we got the same deal we’ve gotten over the past few months; the US is performing bad and getting worse as time goes by. However we got a spectacular couple of days for the USD as it got below 1.50 at the beginning of Sundays session. This doesn’t look right, or at least makes no sense as fundamentals are still pointing to a weak USD. Our conclusion is that central banks must be intervening as the market has no reason to be supporting the USD right now. This makes it even riskier to trade as the market is contradicting fundamentals due to some kind of intervention, but how long will this continue? We will have to be able to wait for the market to adapt and continue to move according to macroeconomics, this is when we will step in and get great profits as the pair readjusts to a more realistic price.
Lets begin the fundamental analysis on Tuesday, this day we get the Monthly Budget Statement. Let’s see if US fundamentals can shake the market and get some sense into it. Wednesday we will see retail sales, remember that consumers have been slowing down for a while now and it could be the reason the US gets in more trouble during the second half of 2008. Thursday will be very important as German and Euro Zone GDP will be released. These releases will be key to determine what could happen on the next few months on the ECB front. We will also get US CPI, we will need to focus on rate differentials and remember that fundamentals run the market. Finally on Friday we get the TICS report and Empire Manufacturing, these will further confirm that the economy is still soar/bad in the US and that it will continue to be like this for a while. Lets see if EUR/USD gets some steam from releases this week and gets back to a level near 1.5350 during the rest of the month.
Important Releases
Day/Session Europe US Asia Monday DOWN STABLE STABLE Monthly Budget Statement Tuesday DOWN UP STABLE Retail Sales Wednesday STABLE UP STABLE Ger GDP. EZ GDP. US CPI Thursday DOWN UP STABLE TICS, Empire Manufacturing. Friday STABLE UP CLOSED As EUR/USD finally breaks from horizontal trading we will need to use some of our supports that worked before. We have the pair bouncing on the top of our previous horizontal channel. Let see if it holds.
Our analysis indicates Long EUR/USD every time it reaches 1.4930
• Take Profit 1:1.5050
• Take Profit 2: 1.5150
Attached Images
Next Analysis: The current market sentimentContent Provided by:
Nexum Capital Markets
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