Oil surges back to life, Dollar under Pressure

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) Economic data and Equities took a backseat to the Oil show yesterday. Geopolitical Concerns stemming from Russia/US sabre rattling sent Oil through the roof up over $6 a barrel at one stage. Initial Dollar weakness was seen in the Asian session as US banking concerns sent the Yen surging. Weekly Jobless Claims eased slightly to 432K from 445K previous and Leading Indicators dropped to -0.7% in July vs. expectations of -0.2%. The August Philly Fed Manufacturing Index recovered to -12.7 from -16.3 in July.  In the U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was down 8 points (-0.36%) and the Dow Jones was up 12 points (0.11%). Crude Oil closed up $5.62 ending the New York session at $121.18 per barrel. Looking ahead, Fed Chief Ben Bernanke speaks tonight on Financial Stability.

The Euro (EUR) had an initial foray into the 1.48’s early in the European session which was sharply repelled by mixed European data. August German Manufacturing PMI slipped below 50 to 49.9 from 50.9 in July. German Services PMI also slipped to 50.6 from 53.1. Eurozone PMI data surprised to the topside though, ticking higher to 47.5 in August vs. 47.4 in July. The surge in Oil provided the stimulus for the second 1.48 attempt which proved successful with spot settling just below 1.4900. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4731 and a high of 1.4897 before closing the day at 1.4890 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Eurozone June Current account forecasted at -2Billion and June Industrial Orders are expected at -1.1%.  

The Japanese Yen (JPY) broke through 109.50 as stock losses mounted and the Dollar weakened. Downside Momentum into the European Session saw support at 109 and 108.50 broken before some heavy cross buying finally brought the decent to a halt.  Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 108.13 and a high of 109.86 before closing the day around 108.50 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) had a volatile trading day but ended substantially higher on USD weakness but UK data was mixed. July Retails Sales bounced back from a -3.9% fall last month to a surprisingly strong +0.8%. Initial Pound gains were tempered though as Preliminary Business Investment look set for a -1.9% drop Q/Q. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.8608 and a high of 1.8782 before closing the day at 1.8760 in the New York session. Looking Ahead, Q2 GDP is forecast at 0.1% Q/Q, 1.5% Y/Y.  

The Australian Dollar (AUD) made good gains on the back of broad commodity strength and USD weakness. AUD/JPY was under pressure early before AUD/USD finally overcame resistance in the low .8700 area to provide some support.  Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8650 and a high of 0.8798 before closing the US session at 0.8730.

Gold (XAU) took its cue from Oil, climbing over $20 as investors flooded back into commodities.  Overall trading with a low of USD$812.60 and high of USD$839 before ending the New York session at USD$834 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

 

Currency	Sup 2	Sup 1	Spot	Res 1	Res 2
EUR/USD	1.4673	1.4732	1.4880	1.4896	1.4963
USD/JPY	107.29	108.04	108.60	109.90	110.67
GBP/USD	1.8513	1.8607	1.8760	1.8787	1.8901
AUD/USD	0.8626	0.8651	0.8780	0.8797	0.8846
XAU/USD	801.00	811.00	834.00	846.00	855.00

 

Euro – 1.4880

Initial support at 1.4732 (Aug 21 low) followed by 1.4673 (Aug 20 low). Initial resistance is now located 1.4896 (Aug 21 low) at followed by 1.4963 (23.6% retrace 1.6038 to 1.4631).

Yen – 108.60

Initial support is located at 108.04 (38.2% retrace 103.78 to 110.67) followed by 107.29 (Aug 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 109.90 (Aug 21 high) followed by 110.67 (Aug 15 high).

Pound – 1.8760

Initial support at 1.8607 (Aug 21 low) followed by 1.8513 (Aug 15 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.8787 (Aug 14 high) followed by 1.8901 (23.6% retrace 2.0157 to 1.8513).

Australian Dollar – 0.8780

Initial support at 0.8651 (Aug 21 low) followed by 0.8626 (Aug 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8797 (Aug 14 High) followed by 0.8846(Aug 12 high).

Gold – 834

Initial support at 811.7 (Aug 21 low) followed by 801 (Aug 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 846 (May 2 support) followed by 855.44 (38.2% retrace 988.00 to 773.50).