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Releases could create a rollercoaster week
By: Nexum Capital Markets - 27-07-2008
0votesWe’re back over 1.5750, and continue to be in a tight range between 1.5650 and 1.5850. This could be the scenario for the next few weeks. This week will be defining on this topic as we get a load of releases for both US and Euro Zone, with this in hand we will be able to diagnose how ‘banged’ up they really are. US supposedly is beginning to see recovery signs and Euro Zone is scared of heading into a wall at full speed. They are having problems with growth and inflation. Oil is a bit lower but still very high, no signs of a real fall on energy prices but at least we’re not seeing record prices every day as a couple of months ago.
Monday will be pretty calm and we expect price action to remain around opening prices. Tuesday we get German CPI and IFO, both read poorly and give us a sign that Europe’s economic motor is slowing down. For the US we get Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, it is getting better and better on this front for the USD so we expect a recovery at least for the day on EUR/USD. Wednesday will be very important for Euro Zone; we’ll see German Retail sales along with a load of releases regarding European economies. Keep a close eye as they will give us an outlook of what is really going on. What jumps out on Thursday is Euro Zone CPI, this is very important as they’ve said that they’ll focus first on inflation and then on growth so CPI represents the difference between hiking and cutting rates on upcoming meetings. On the US front we get GDP which is expected to read much better than the previous one. Finally on Friday we get Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment for the US. Again, better than expected readings on these ones and the USD will be on its way to a strong rebound looking to get under 1.50 for the first time in a while now.
Important Releases Day/Session Europe US Asia Monday UP DOWN STABLE Ger. CPI, IFO. US Cons. Conf. Tuesday UP…DOWN UP STABLE Ger. Retail Sales Wednesday DOWN STABLE STABLE EZ. CPI, unemployment. US GDP Consumption Thursday UP DOWN STABLE Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Friday STABLE UP CLOSED HIGH: 1.5810
LOW: 1.5630
CLOSE: 1.5700EUR/USD is still trading horizontally. Let’s see if this week gets the pair out of the range and shoots to either side. Stochastic and CCI are looking bullish at the time.
Our analysis indicates Short EUR/USD every time it reaches 1.5800• Take Profit 1:1.5750
• Take Profit 2: 1.5650
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