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By: Trade The News - 30-09-2008
0votesMarket Commentary : GBP/USD
Weekly open sees a downside move towards main daily support zone. Consolidation still running as price is trapped in a symetrical triangle.
On a technical side, last 3 weeks sees an impressive 5-waves correction from yearly lows, and it's now time to determinate if this correction is already over, or if it's the early part of a larger correction higher.
On the fundamental side, UK economy, even if quite robust, is more afftected by US financial crisis than Europe . Waiting a rate descision in months ahead, volatility remain high as investors are affraid by Us situation and any worse-than-expected eco. datas may be a catalyst for recession confirmation fears, witch may send the UK currency lower.
Chart commentary : GBP/USD 1-Hour Chart
To the downside, current symetrical triangle has to be broken to validate fall continuation : A sustained break below 1.7950/80 support zone has to be seen. Price may then reach 1.7910/20 intraday support, ahead of -23.6% fib. projection at 1.7840. No rebound here will lead to a test of 1.7740 main support.
To the upside, the 1.8110/50 reszistance zone & triangle high has to be broken to expect a test of weekly highs. Upside break of triangle will let price run towards 1.8190 - 1.8210 resistance zone & channel high. No rejection here will allow price to clib towards 1.8260/70, where a rejection is expected.
Indicator's Status :
- Slow MACD neutral to negative. As a lagging indicator, break of triangle & MACD positive cross is needed to validate the break.
- Fast stochastic started a positive cycle and is still in the positive zone. However, bias remain& neutral. Await a cross above 50.
- Both RSI and W%R are neutral to positive. Bias remain neutral. Monitor overbought/sold status according to price level to determine intraday trend continuation or reversal.
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