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Volatility gives us the opportunity to obtain great profits

By:   Nexum Capital Markets
  • 21-04-2008
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EUR/USD is having volatile swings throughout the weeks. We’ve seen it trapped between 1.5970 and 1. 5600 for the past few weeks. However this is not a bad thing, if we manage to maintain our discipline and wait for significant moves to step in the market, we can get great profits out of this behavior. Let’s try and wait to see the pair get closer to 1.6000 to step in with short positions. The pair seems to be waiting for a realease that will set things straight and give us a clear view of where we’re heading. Well this release could be the US recovery or the Euro Zone stepping into bigger problems as both: higher inflation and low growth stay on the upbeat.
 
Lets focus on this week and stop thinking about factors that will shake the market someday; we begin on Tuesday with Existing Home Sales, which will continue to go down, and the rate decision by the BOC. We believe that the market has already anticipated a .50 cut by the BoC and that is why USD/CAD is now over parity. Wednesday will bring BoE minutes and this will be important to give us an outlook of how other central banks on the other side of the pond are reacting to low growth. Keep an eye on the sterling as the movements we see on this currency will be very similar to what will happen to the euro once they begin to cut their interest rate. Thursday begins to become more interesting as we get Euro Zone Current Account, German IFO and Durable Goods for the US, all of these releases point to a Dollar recovery however we will have ECB officials speaking at the time of the releases so it will be important to determine how the market is reacting to both these releases at the same time. Finally on Friday we get UK GDP and consumer confidence for the US.

Important Releases

Day/SessionEuropeUSAsia
 MondayUPSTABLESTABLE
EXISTING HOME SALES, BOC RATETuesdaySTABLEUP...DOWNUP
B.O.E. MINUTESWednesdayDOWNSTABLESTABLE
E.Z. CC – GERMAN IFO – DURABLE GOODSThursdayDOWNDOWNUP
UK GDP --CONSUMER CONFIDENCEFridayUPDOWNCLOSED

EUR/USD

The current see saw movement on the pair gives us the opportunity to take advantage and get great profits. Discipline is the name of the game and you will need to follow your plan all the time in order to be successful on this type of behavior by the currencies. If you decide to go short or long be careful to wait until the price gets where you wanted to get in the market and don’t try to anticipate wider moves or you’ll risk getting trapped behind price action.

 

DAILY GRAPH

We can clearly see the pair moving within a range. Lets keep an eye on this movement to see if it will continue and watch for any indication of a breakout to any side.


Our analysis indicates Short EUR/USD every time it reaches 1.5870
• Take Profit 1:1.5800
• Take Profit 2: 1.5690


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Next Analysis: Bank of England announces plan to increase liquidity. US dollar weakens as sentiment dampens.
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Nexum Capital Markets
El Mercado Internacional de Divisas (MID), es un mercado en el cual participan inversionistas, empresas, bancos, casas de bolsa, casas cambiarias, etc., de todas partes del mundo, las 24 horas del día.



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