FX Views (6 JAN 2012): G10 & EM FX Reviews

G10 & EM FX mostly consolidating in the Asia-Pacific and London Sessions.  The Hungarian Forint, however, has managed to pare back +1% of its recent losses on EU/IMF optimism release. G10 FX, however, trading without conviction and rightfully so as fresh position initiations are likely to wait for the outcome of the U.S. December payrolls report due out at 0830EST.
G10 DATA & NEWS FLOWS

* ASIA-PACIFIC SESSION saw no top tier data
* ECB's Knot says Germany has to be convinced to raise EU fund
* ECB's Knot says euro exchange rate has been 'surprisingly stable'
* ECB's Knot says EU has to speed up decisions, euro zone reforms
* JAPAN Fin. Min. Azumi says he wants to win acceptance for tax increase plan
* JAPAN’s Azumi: EU nations must make efforts to win investor trust
* JAPAN’s Azumi: Japan will do what it can for Europe
* JAPAN’s Azumi: Understands weak euro has big effect on exporters
* JAPAN’s Azumi: Japan is watching currency movements closely
* ECB said to be buying Spanish bonds
* UK Halifax House Prices drop as expected in December by -09%
* SWITZERLAND  FX Reserves rise to 254.2bln
* SWITZERLAND  Dec. CPI falls -0.2 in December and -0.7% y/y
* EZ Dec. F Consumer Confidence close to broad expectations at -21.1
* EZ Nov. Retail Sales worse at -0.8 vs. expected -0.4%

EM DATA & NEWS FLOWS

* SAMSUNG Electronics op profit KRW5.2tln; expected KRW4.6tln
* CHINA Yuan weakens 0.08% to 6.3069 vs U.S. Follar
* TAIWAN's Nov. Coal Iimports fall -6.3% to 5.37mln tons
* COLUMBIA's Dec. Consumer Prices rise +0.42% from month ago
* CZECH REPUBLIC Nov. Industrial Output rises +5.4%y/y vs. expected +0.5%
* CZECH REPUBLIC Nov. Trade Balance is 18.4bln vs. expected 18bln
* HUNGARY  Nov. Industrial Production is +4.2% vs. prior -0.9%
* TURKEY’S Basci says no reason for lira to weaken
* TURKEY’S Basci says Turkey can comfortably gather foreign financing
* TURKEY’S Basci: Lira investors in 2012 will earn

G10 FX TECHNICALS & REVIEWS

* EUR/USD consolidating in an ascending triangle throughout the Asia Session as 1.2800 has so far capped upside. Long term downside still in view but record short positioning may see a squeeze higher first.

          o S/T RESISTANCE: 1.2800 ahead of 1.2850/60 prior Jan. ’11 daily lows; S/T SUPPORt: 1.2765/70 recent hourly lows.
          o STRATEGY – Potential shorts around 1.3150 from FX VIEWS: ECB 3yr LTRO - A game changer or better short value?...about +350 pips as limit targets around 1.2725 remain in close view.
          o Limit targets for potential shorts from Weekly Strategy - Selling EUR/USD on rallies ...

* GBP/USD in countercyclical consolidation mode but still above key 1.5350 daily pivot.

          o S/T RESISTANCE: 1.5505 ascending triangle top; S/T SUPPORT: 1.5480/85 triangle base.
          o STRATEGY – Potential shorts around 1.5750 from GBP under-performance looks set to continue...

* AUD/USD trading with no conviction after being rejected just above the 1.0400 figure but may need to see channel support around 1.0175 for downside to accelerate.

          o S/T RESISTANCE: 1.0285 55 & 100-hr smas;  KEY DOWNSIDE PIVOT: 1.0175.
          o STRATEGY: Flat; limit targets for potential longs from FX VIEWS: USD WRAP UP...posted DEC 15 2011 met at 1.0240 for about +300 pips.

* NZD/USD also consolidating but better bid towards intraday range highs around 0.7815/20 but close below 100-wk sma sees scope for longer term downside.

          o S/T RESISTANCE: 0.7815/20; S/T SUPPORT: 0.7790.
          o STRATEGY – Potential shorts around 0.7830 from FX VIEWS: S/T SUMMIT RALLEIS TO PROVIDE M/T VALUE FOR SHORTS...posted DEC 8 2011 just about even but up about +15 pips at moment of writing.

EM FX TECHNICALS & REVIEWS

* EUR/TRY consolidating in the near term but closed below medium term range lows on the back of more orthodox CBRT tightening measures, aggressive rhetoric from Governor Basci, and broad euro weakness. –

          o S/T resistance: 2.4150 prior daily range lows;  S/T support 2.3950 200-day SMA.
          o STRATEGY: Potential shorts around 2.4750 from EM FX INSIDER: EUR/TRY - Carry TRYade?...posted OCT 25 2011 & updated in EMERGING MARKETS FX INSIDER: FAST FORWARD - Q1 2012 up about 700 pips and limit targets around 2.2750 remain in vie. While the final limit objective is far from current levels, the longer the better due to the positive carry value on short EUR/TRY positioning.

* USD/ZAR drifting lower in the Asia Session but m/t scope for rand downside remains until Europe’s debt crisis is resolved.

          o S/T RESISTANCE 8.2360/65 recent hourly highs; S/T SUPPORT 8.1500 trend-line support.
          o STRATEGY – Flat; Potential longs at around 7.8000 never triggered from EMERGING MARKETS FX INSIDER: FAST FORWARD - Q1 2012.