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After Six Day Break, NZD/USD May Be Ready for Retracement
By: James Hyerczyk - 09-07-2008
0votesAnalysis
The NZD/USD main trend is down. The market is down six days from the last main top at .7664 (06-30-08), but nearing the last main bottom at .7445 (06-13-08).
Gann Angles
There is no uptrending Gann angle support as the market has broken below every available level.
On the upside, however, the market has closed on the weak side of a downtrending Gann angle at .7524. The market may trade on both sides of this angle until it can pull away.
Regaining .7524 could set up a rally to .7594.
Swing Chart
The main trend is down unless the market regains .7664.
Look for more downside pressure if the June 13 main bottom is penetrated at .7445.
There may be some support at 50% of the August 2007 to February 2008 range at .7427. This is a major 50% price.
Additional support may come in at the low of the year at .7382 (01-22-08).
The market is weak but approaching a major support area.
Trading Ideas
With the main trend down, the saftest trade is from the short-side. Look to sell a rally back to .7574 to .7595 if given the opportunity. Downtrending resistance comes in at .7594 making .7594 to .7595 a key resistance cluster.
Because of the importance of the 50% price at .7427 and the old main bottom at .7382, look for some profit-taking in this zone and perhaps some counter-trend buying.
Next Analysis: USD stronger yesterday on equity recovery and oil price drop, but falls out of bed this morning on Iran worries.Content Provided by:
James Hyerczyk
James A. Hyerczyk is a registered Commodity Trading Advisor with the National Futures Association.
Mr. Hyerczyk has been actively involved in the futures markets since 1982. He has worked in various capacities within the futures industry from technical analyst to commodity trading advisor.
DISCLAIMER:
Forex (off-exchange foreign currency futures and options or FX) trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The value of currencies may fluctuate and investors may lose all or more than their original investments. Risks also include, but are not limited to, the potential for changing political and/or economic conditions that may substantially affect the price and/or liquidity of a currency. The impact of seasonal and geopolitical events is already factored into market prices. Prices in the underlying cash or physical markets do not necessarily move in tandem with futures and options prices. The leveraged nature of FX trading means that any market movement will have an equally proportional effect on your deposited funds and such may work against you as well as for you. In no event should the content of this correspondence be construed as an express or implied promise or guarantee from James A. Hyerczyk and J.A.H. Research and Trading or its subsidiaries and/or affiliates that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of positions such as "spread" or "straddle" trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information contained in this correspondence is intended for informational purposes only and was obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
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