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Crude Oil Rally Could Help USD/CAD Change Trend to Down
By: James Hyerczyk - 03-07-2008
0votesAnalysis
The USD/CAD fell sharply lower in one of the biggest ranges in months as higher commodity prices especially the crude oil brought buyers into the Canadian Dollar.
The key area to watch is 50% price at 1.0071 and the main trend bottom at 1.0047. A break through 1.0047 turns the main trend down and could trigger a further decline to a Fibonacci level at 1.0011.
Downtrending resistance is at 1.0238 today, but the most important resistance zone is 1.0128 to 1.0143. Counter-trend traders can sell into this zone looking for a break through 1.0047.
There may be some buying in the retracement zone at 1.0071 to 1.0011, but this is most likely profit-taking rather than new buying.
Watch the Crude Oil, Gold and Wheat markets to set the tone for the day.
Pattern
Main Trend: Up
Main Trend Top: 1.0323 (06-10-08)
Main Trend Bottom: 1.0047 (06-27-08)
Price
1.0323 Main Trend Top (06-10-08)
1.0240 Minor Trend Top (07-01-08)
1.0238 Gann Angle Down
1.0143 Gann Angle Down
1.0128 Gann Angle Up
1.0109 New York Close
1.0071 50% Retracement
1.0047 Main Trend Bottom (06-27-08)
1.0011 .618 Retracement
.9973 Gann Angle Up
.9818 Main Trend Bottom (05-21-08)
Time
07-04 90-Day Cycle
07-14 90-Day Cycle
Next Analysis: AUD/USD Closes in a Position to Test .9668Content Provided by:
James Hyerczyk
James A. Hyerczyk is a registered Commodity Trading Advisor with the National Futures Association.
Mr. Hyerczyk has been actively involved in the futures markets since 1982. He has worked in various capacities within the futures industry from technical analyst to commodity trading advisor.
DISCLAIMER:
Forex (off-exchange foreign currency futures and options or FX) trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The value of currencies may fluctuate and investors may lose all or more than their original investments. Risks also include, but are not limited to, the potential for changing political and/or economic conditions that may substantially affect the price and/or liquidity of a currency. The impact of seasonal and geopolitical events is already factored into market prices. Prices in the underlying cash or physical markets do not necessarily move in tandem with futures and options prices. The leveraged nature of FX trading means that any market movement will have an equally proportional effect on your deposited funds and such may work against you as well as for you. In no event should the content of this correspondence be construed as an express or implied promise or guarantee from James A. Hyerczyk and J.A.H. Research and Trading or its subsidiaries and/or affiliates that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of positions such as "spread" or "straddle" trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information contained in this correspondence is intended for informational purposes only and was obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
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