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NZD/USD Trades Tight as Fundamentals and Technicals Clash
By: James Hyerczyk - 03-07-2008
0votesAnalysis
The Main Trend turned up earlier in the week on the trade through .7647, but the NZD/USD has failed to show any upside momentum due to bearish fundamentals indicating a possible economic slowdown and contraction.
No damage was done to the uptrend on Wednesday as the market posted an inside range. A trade through
.7531 will turn the main trend down, however.
An uptrending Gann angle at .7585 is providing support.
Downtrending resistance from the main top at .7922 (5-27-08) is at .7652.
A breakout through either one of these angles should set the tone for the day.
A weak U.S. Employment report is likely to trigger a breakout to the upside with a rally to a retracement zone at .7684 to .7740 likely.
With the main trend up and the yield attractive, lean toward the long side.
Pattern
Main Trend: Up
Main Trend Top: .7922 (5-27-08)
Main Trend Bottom: .7531 (06-27-08)
Price
.7922 Main Trend Top (05-27-08)
.7760 Gann Angle Down
.7740 .618 Retracement
.7684 50% Retracement
.7664 Minor Top (06-30-08)
.7652 Gann Angle Down
.7604 New York Close
.7585 Gann Angle Up
.7531 Main Trend Bottom (05-27-08)
.7515 Gann Angle Up
.7445 Main Trend Bottom (06-13-08)
Time
07-10 90-Day Cycle
Next Analysis: Sharp Break Likely in USD/CHF if 1.0129 FailsContent Provided by:
James Hyerczyk
James A. Hyerczyk is a registered Commodity Trading Advisor with the National Futures Association.
Mr. Hyerczyk has been actively involved in the futures markets since 1982. He has worked in various capacities within the futures industry from technical analyst to commodity trading advisor.
DISCLAIMER:
Forex (off-exchange foreign currency futures and options or FX) trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The value of currencies may fluctuate and investors may lose all or more than their original investments. Risks also include, but are not limited to, the potential for changing political and/or economic conditions that may substantially affect the price and/or liquidity of a currency. The impact of seasonal and geopolitical events is already factored into market prices. Prices in the underlying cash or physical markets do not necessarily move in tandem with futures and options prices. The leveraged nature of FX trading means that any market movement will have an equally proportional effect on your deposited funds and such may work against you as well as for you. In no event should the content of this correspondence be construed as an express or implied promise or guarantee from James A. Hyerczyk and J.A.H. Research and Trading or its subsidiaries and/or affiliates that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of positions such as "spread" or "straddle" trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information contained in this correspondence is intended for informational purposes only and was obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
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