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---Rollercoaster movements expected from the load of releases this week ---

By:   Nexum Capital Markets
  • 14-07-2008
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Last week we saw the EUR/USD bounce back to levels near 1.6000. This time around we’re beginning to see some ‘well known’ analysts preparing to ride the USD as the trend shifts and sends the pair lower. ECB’s rate hike supported a higher price action but the market was anticipating more than one .25 bsp rate hike on 2008 and Trichet made it pretty clear that they are not planning on doing that. This is the main reason we got back to 1.5600 and now we hear people like Bill Gross supporting the Greenback for the first time since the Euro was created.

            This week is filled with fundamentals so lets focus on this side of our analysis to prepare ourselves for this rollercoaster week. We’ll begin on Tuesday with US PPI, Retail Sales and Bernanke talking about monetary policy. This is a lot to digest on a single session but we’ll have to focus first on PPI and Retail Sales as they will give us an outlook on what could happen on the following months. Retail Sales will show us if consumers are beginning to feel more comfortable with the situation, enough to start spending again. On the other side, PPI gives us an idea on where inflation sits. Both these releases clear the view on what the FED could do with interest rates. Further on the day we get Ben Bernanke speaking about monetary policy, we expect him to speak about growing concerns on inflation but reminding us that the FED will act as needed, so there are no new comments during Tuesday. On the European side we get German and Euro Zone ZEW Surveys, they all might read negative. Economic Sentiment is looking bad and this supports the idea that ECB will have to retract their move on interest rate to help the economy from hitting a pretty big speed bump. On Wednesday we get US CPI and the FED’s minutes; again both these releases work together as CPI gives us a peak into inflation and the minutes will show us how close the FED is to hiking rates. On Wednesday we also get Euro Zone CPI which probably not look very good and this might increase the concerns of stagflation in the continent.  Thursday will bring Housing Starts and the Philly Fed, housing seemed to be recovering against previous months but now news is only talking about Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae creating a collapse in the housing and financial sectors on the US, this is extremely important and will be key to follow during the week. Finally on Friday we get Euro Zone Trade Balance, we believe after such a load of releases traders will step back and let the market readjust and get to a stable price.


[CENTER ALIGN=CENTER] Have a nice week and please remember to focus and be patient.[/CENTER ALIGN]


[CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?[/CENTER ALIGN]
[CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]E-mail us at:  info@nexumcapital.com[/CENTER ALIGN]



These are our Daily Predictions. For any question or suggestion don’t doubt and contact me at info@nexumcapital.com


[CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]Important Releases[/CENTER ALIGN][CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]Day/Session[/CENTER ALIGN][CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]Europe[/CENTER ALIGN][CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]US[/CENTER ALIGN][CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]Asia[/CENTER ALIGN]
[CENTER ALIGN=CENTER] [/CENTER ALIGN][CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]Monday[/CENTER ALIGN][CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]DOWN[/CENTER ALIGN][CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]STABLE[/CENTER ALIGN][CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]STABLE[/CENTER ALIGN]
[CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]US, PPI Retail Sales & Bernanke. EZ ZEW Survey Ger. ZEW[/CENTER ALIGN][CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]Tuesday[/CENTER ALIGN][CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]DOWN[/CENTER ALIGN][CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]UP[/CENTER ALIGN][CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]STABLE[/CENTER ALIGN]
[CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]FOMC Minutes, CPI TICS. EZ CPI[/CENTER ALIGN][CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]Wednesday[/CENTER ALIGN][CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]UP[/CENTER ALIGN][CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]UP…DOWN[/CENTER ALIGN][CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]STABLE[/CENTER ALIGN]
[CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]Housing Starts, Philly FED[/CENTER ALIGN][CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]Thursday[/CENTER ALIGN][CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]STABLE[/CENTER ALIGN][CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]UP…DOWN[/CENTER ALIGN][CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]STABLE[/CENTER ALIGN]

EZ Trade Balance		[CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]Friday[/CENTER ALIGN][CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]DOWN[/CENTER ALIGN][CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]STABLE[/CENTER ALIGN][CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]CLOSED[/CENTER ALIGN]

HIGH: 1.6000

LOW: 1.5810

CLOSE: 1.5900




[CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]Why Remain an Ordinary Investor, when you can become an EXTRAORDINARY one by Joining Us Today?[/CENTER ALIGN]
[CENTER ALIGN=CENTER] [/CENTER ALIGN]
[CENTER ALIGN=CENTER]E-mail us at: info@nexumcapital.com[/CENTER ALIGN]



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All comments and opinions are solely those of the writer and are not in any way comments or opinions of Nexum Capital or its affiliates. Additional information is available upon request. Information in this publication has been obtained from sources believed by the writer to be reliable, but the accuracy, completeness and interpretation are not guaranteed and have not been independently verified.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and, due to the rapidly changing nature of currency markets, may quickly become outdated. The opinions and information presented do not constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities or options on securities.

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