Daily Forex Overview

Previous session overview
On Tuesday, the dollar gave back some of its recent gains as weak U.S. consumer confidence data put the spotlight back on economy and the possibility of more interest-rate reductions.

The euro climbed above $1.56 after the consumer confidence report and remained around that level throughout the North American session.

The Euro has taken off ahead of the German IFO report. This was largely due to weaker US economic data, but the fact that the EUR/USD is closing near its highs suggest that there could be follow through, especially if the German IFO report beats expectations. EURUSD traded with a low of 1.5405 and a high of 1.5607 before closing the day at 1.5596 in the New York session.

US dollar weakness has resumed with USD/JPY falling back towards 100. Aside from USD/JPY, other yen crosses actually ended the day in positive territory. There was no Japanese economic data released but Bank of Japan officials continued to sound a cautionary tone. USD/JPY traded with a low of 99.63 and a high of 101.03 before closing the day at 100.31 in the New York session.

The British pound broke the 2.0 level against the US dollar thanks to broad dollar weakness. There was no UK economic data released, which is why the strength of the pound was only seen against the US dollar and Japanese Yen. GBPUSD traded with a low of 1.9850 and a high of 2.0005 before closing the day at 1.9995 in the New York session.

The Australian dollar rallied Wednesday, lifted by a weakening U.S. dollar and slight easing of risk aversion, along with stronger equities.

The Canadian dollar fell against the US dollar after an early gain from strong domestic retail sales were eroded by nagging concerns about exports to the US. Commodities make up about 50% of Canadian exports leaving the loony vulnerable to changes in oil and gold.

Market expectation
The euro is very slightly lower against the dollar and yen in a consolidation that mirrors activity in other asset classes on Wednesday. Markets are looking for fresh data.

Currency analysts expect the euro to begin trading in ranges of $1.53 to $1.57, after some wild gyrations in recent weeks.

USD/JPY rises as U.S., other non-Japan names buy, apparently covering shorts after pair's mild recovery from day's low so far of JPY99.65.

With US officials having already done a lot of ???housekeeping' in recent weeks, traders are starting to cast their eyes towards other parts of the world that may be vulnerable. As a result, we suspect the US dollar's bounce hasn't run its full course yet. However, we emphasize that this is likely to be a short-term move, as the market shakes off the excessive pessimism of recent weeks.

Data out of the EU on Wednesday will include the German IFO whilst ECB President Trichet is also scheduled to talk.