Daily Trading Strategy

Decisions have to be made

Good morning from Montevideo, ok, today is Central Bank day. We will have the Bank of England and the European Central Bank meeting. The first one is expected to cut rates, that is what the market is pricing, and they can get a surprise. Remember that the Bank of England (BOE) is used to give us surprises, and the market has already priced in a rate cut by the BOE, if not how do you explain the nearly 500 pips fall in less than a week? Remember “buy the rumor, sell the fact”, and this is exactly what can happen today. We are long from 1.9570 as you already know (more I expect you have followed me on that trade) and now we are moving the stop to breakeven and wait for the data, there is a lot of potential in this trade, and the risk of capital is 0 right now, damn I like that!.

On the other hand we are having the European Central Bank meeting, the ECB is expected to leave rates unchanged but we have to focus in Trichet speech. There are some analysts that think the ECB may be ready for raising rates, hold on a sec… raising rates????... They must be brave, really brave to make a hike on interest rates. Yeah, I know about oil prices and that inflation risks are big, but what about economic data? Germany the motor of the European economy is starting to feel the pain, retail sales dropped and consumer spending felled also, do the math, no spending – no growth.

Let’s see how the day develops; I just want some volatility to do a lot of swing trading!