EUR/USD continues to be in neutral state today. As it was discussed before, break of upper boundary of symmetrical triangle and crossing of Tenkan and Kijun lines of Ichimoku Kinko Hyo gave the signal of upward movement. Daily chart indicates that “saucer” pattern formed which gave the signal to trend reversal. At this moment, there is strong rebound from new weekly maximum of 1.4720. The so-called “shooting star” candlestick on daily chart indicated subsequent downward movement, and “evening star” formed on 4H chart gives such a signal too.
Break of 1.3768 resistance level (38.3% retracement of 1.6038 to 1.2329) signified the completion of decline from 1.6038 and formation of a medium term bottom at 1.2329.
In case of break of 61.8% retracement we should expect further rise to 1.4863.
The opposite scenario, particularly break of 1.3744 support level will indicate the completion of strong rebound from a medium term minimum of 1.2329. In case of further decline EUR/USD’s break of main support level of 1.2329 will be the signal to downward movement to a long term 50% retracement level of 0.8223 to 1.6038 at 1.2131 or even 1.1639.
According to 4H and daily chart RSI(14) suggests that the currency pair was in overbought zone and crossing of RSI and 70% signal line signifies further decline but today it is very close to overbought zone again.
MACD gives the signal to strong upward movement but it is “very high” which means that the currency pair is overbought, so further downward movement is expected to take place.
Support levels: 1.3825, 1.3744, 1.3498.
Resistance levels: 1.4323, 1.4720, 1.4863
Alexander Kovalchuk, senior analyst of EXNESS
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