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Last Wakeup Call Of The Year, Enjoy The Holidays

By:

Forex WebTrader

2007-24-12

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We expect volumes to wear out as market participants are set to spend some
time off the books and get ready for a new year.

Overnight News Bullets

JN Convenience Store Sales YoY (Nov), out at -0.5% vs. -1.2% prior.
GE GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (Nov), out at 4.5 vs. 4.0 exp. 4.3 prior.
SZ Trade Balance (Nov), out at 1.89B vs. 1.44B exp. 1.56B prior.
SZ Producer & Import Prices MoM/YoY (Nov), out at 0.3%/3.0% vs. 0.2%/2.9% exp. 0.2%/2.7% prior.
NO Unemployment Rate (Dec), out at 1.6% as expected. Unchanged from prior.
UK GDP QoQ/YoY (3Q F), out at 0.7%/3.3% vs. 0.7%/3.2% exp. 0.7%/3.2% prior.
UK Current Account (3Q), out at -20.0B vs. -11.4B exp. -9.1B prior.
UK Public Finances (Nov), out at 8.9B vs. 8.0B exp. -4.8B prior.
UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (Nov), out at 11.2B vs. 10.0B exp. -1.0B prior.
UK M4 Money Supply MoM/YoY (Nov P), out at 0.1%/11.1% vs. 0.4%/11.6% exp. 0.2%/11.8% prior.
UK BSA Mortgage Approvals (Nov), out at £4533M vs. £3985M prior.
US GDP Annualized (3Q F), out at 4.9% as exp. Unchanged from prior.
US Personal Consumption (3Q F), out at 2.8% vs. 2.8% exp. 2.7% prior.
US GDP Price Index (3Q F), out at 1.0% vs. 0.9% exp. 0.9% prior.
US Core PCE QoQ (3Q F), out at 2.0% vs. 1.8% exp. 1.8% prior.
US Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 15), out at 346K vs. 335K exp. 333K prior.
US Continuing Claims (Dec 8), out at 2646K vs. 2610K exp. 2639K prior.
US Leading Indicators (Nov), out at -0.4% vs. -0.3% exp. -0.5% prior.
US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (Dec 14), out at -121 vs. -133 exp. -146 prior.
US Philadelphia Fed. (Dec), out at -5.7 vs. 6.0 exp. 8.2 prior.
NZ GDP QoQ/YoY (3Q), out at 0.5%/3.3% vs. 0.4%/3.2% exp. 0.7%/3.2% prior.
AU New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM/YoY (Nov), out at 1.1%/10.1% vs. 1.1%/8.9% prior.
NZ Credit Card Spending (Nov), out at 9.5% vs. 7.8% prior.

Markets

FX: Very quit day in FX markets with low holiday volumes. EURUSD still range trading.
Fixed Income: US treasuries fall on inflation and Stock rally, European Bonds strengthened somewhat.
Stocks: Mixed in Europe, but strong US and Asian sessions lead by technology shares.
Commodities: Crude ranges tightening. Metals consolidating.

O/N Data Heat map:

EU	US	JP	UK	SZ	AU	CA	NZ	NO	SE	FR
	+		+	+			+

Calendar

Today's Highlights

Time (GMT)
Region Release Consensus
08:15 SW Manufacturing Confidence SA (DEC) -3
08:15 SW Consumer Confidence (DEC) 11.4
08:15 SW Economic Tendency Survey (DEC) Prior 106.6
08:15 SW PPI MoM/YoY (NOV) 0.3% / 4.1%
09:00 EC E-Z Current Account SA (OCT) 1.8B
09:30 UK Retail Sales MoM/YoY (NOV) 0.2% / 4.4%
09:30 UK Index of Services 3mth/3mth (OCT) 0.7%
10:00 EC Industrial New Orders MoM/YoY (OCT) 2.0% / 6.5%
10:30 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (DEC) Prior -10
13:30 US Personal Income (NOV) 0.5%
13:30 US Personal Spending (NOV) 0.7%
13:30 US PCE Deflator YoY (NOV) 3.4%
13:30 US PCE Core MoM/YoY (NOV) 0.2% / 2.0%
13:30 US University of Michigan Confidence (DEC) 74.5
18:00 US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (DEC) Prior 1824

This and Next Week's Highlights:

Time (GMT)
Region Release Consensus
13:30 CA GDP MoM (OCT) 0.1%
13:30 CA Retail Sales MoM (OCT) -0.4%
13:30 CA Retail Sales Less Autos MoM (OCT) 0%

What's Going on?

Bear Stearns 4Q loss per share at $6.9 vs. $1.82 expected. No noteworthy reaction.
US Final Q3 GDP figures: Real growth at 4.9% and GDP Price Index (measure for overall headline inflation) at 1% Annualized. With headline inflation going through the roof according to all other measures, this is simply unbelievable.
USD crosses still in very tight ranges. Will we have a break-out ahead of X-mas? Upside seems most likely.
US stocks edging higher, but awaiting PCE figures today. Watch out for upside, if PCE Core comes out at 0.2%/2.0% MoM/YoY or lower.
Forex:

EUR
USD JPY GBP CHF AUD CAD NZD NOK SEK PLN
+ - + - + +

Forex Trading Strategies:

Pair
Supp. Resis. Comments
USDJPY 112.73 113.71 We maintain our B-O play from yesterday. Upside most likely. Place order to buy at 113.72 bid. Target 114.70. Trailing stop 25 pips. Place order to sell at 112.73 offered. Target 212.10. Trailing stop 20 pips.

Equities

Last Push Before X-mas? – we buy E.ON AG (EONG:xetr)

Shares had a positive day and rose for the second time during the week, largely supported by technology shares as Oracle Corp showed better than expected earnings, sending a signal that spending on technology is holding up as the economy slows. We expect volumes to wear out as market participants are set to spend some time off the books and get ready for a new year.
DAX
UKX CAC OMX KFX OBX SMI NDX DJI SPX NKY
+ + + + + + + + + + +

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