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Lower Close Puts Downsider Pressure on USD/JPY
By: James Hyerczyk - 02-07-2008
0votesAnalysis
Wednesday's lower close is expected to put downside pressure on the USD/JPY with an early test of 105.48 likely. This price is a major uptrending Gann angle from the 95.73 (03-17-08) Main Bottom. A break through this level could trigger a decline to 104.97.
Although this pair may react to the ECB rate hike, most traders will be watching the U.S. stock market's reaction to the U.S. employment report. A bearish report could trigger a sharp break in the stock market which may lead to an acceleration to the downside.
The overnight trade has the market trading slightly above a retracement zone at 105.58 to 104.86. This is providing short-term support along with the Gann angle at 105.48.
Points on the downside which may trigger accelerations down are 104.39 and 103.96.
On the upside, a 50% retracement price at 106.70 provided the resistance on Wednesday. The actual retracement zone is 106.70 to 107.10. Additional Gann angle resistance is at 106.92. With the main trend down, look for an opportunity to sell in this area if given the chance.
Pattern
Main Trend: Down
Main Trend Top: 108.42 (06-25-08)
Main Trend Bottom: 104.39 (06-09-08)
Price
108.59 Main Trend Top (06-06-08)
108.42 Main Trend Top (06-25-08)
107.67 Gann Angle Down
107.10 .618 Retracement
106.92 Gann Angle Down
106.70 50% Price
105.83 New York Close
105.58 50% Retracement
105.48 Gann Angle Up
104.97 Minor Trend Bottom
104.86 .618 Retracement
104.39 Main Trend Bottom (06-09-08)
103.96 Main Trend Bottom (06-03-08)
Time
07-03 90-Day Cycle
07-10 90-Day Cycle
Next Analysis: NZD/USD Trades Tight as Fundamentals and Technicals ClashContent Provided by:
James Hyerczyk
James A. Hyerczyk is a registered Commodity Trading Advisor with the National Futures Association.
Mr. Hyerczyk has been actively involved in the futures markets since 1982. He has worked in various capacities within the futures industry from technical analyst to commodity trading advisor.
DISCLAIMER:
Forex (off-exchange foreign currency futures and options or FX) trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The value of currencies may fluctuate and investors may lose all or more than their original investments. Risks also include, but are not limited to, the potential for changing political and/or economic conditions that may substantially affect the price and/or liquidity of a currency. The impact of seasonal and geopolitical events is already factored into market prices. Prices in the underlying cash or physical markets do not necessarily move in tandem with futures and options prices. The leveraged nature of FX trading means that any market movement will have an equally proportional effect on your deposited funds and such may work against you as well as for you. In no event should the content of this correspondence be construed as an express or implied promise or guarantee from James A. Hyerczyk and J.A.H. Research and Trading or its subsidiaries and/or affiliates that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of positions such as "spread" or "straddle" trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information contained in this correspondence is intended for informational purposes only and was obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
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