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Sharp Break Likely in USD/CHF if 1.0129 Fails
By: James Hyerczyk - 03-07-2008
0votesAnalysis
The USD/CHF formed a Main Trend Bottom at 1.0129 (06-30-08), a little under a major 50% level at 1.0130.
The charts indicate an almost straight drop down is likely if this area fails. The downside target is 1.0025 to 1.0013.
A break of this caliber would most likely be triggered by a bearish U.S. employment report and a weak U.S. stock market.
On the upside, a resistance cluster at 1.0255 to 1.0261 is likely to attract sellers.
A strong breakout above this area could trigger a further rally into a retracement zone at 1.0335 to 1.0384.
With the main trend down, it's best to look for a selling opportunity. Look to press the market under 1.0129 or wait for a retracement to 1.0255 - 1.0261.
Watch the stock market for direction.
Pattern
Main Trend: Down
Main Trend Top: 1.0541 (06-13-08)
Main Trend Bottom: 1.0129 (06-30-08)
Price
1.0401 Gann Angle Down
1.0384 .618 Retracement
1.0335 50% Retracement
1.0261 Gann Angle Down
1.0255 Gann Angle Down
1.0150 New York Close
1.0130 50% Retracement
1.0129 Main Trend Bottom (06-30-08)
1.0025 Gann Angle Up
1.0013 .618 Retracement
Time
07-03 90-Day Cycle
07-10 90-Day Cycle
Next Analysis: Regaining 1.9968 Puts GBP/USD in a Strong PositionContent Provided by:
James Hyerczyk
James A. Hyerczyk is a registered Commodity Trading Advisor with the National Futures Association.
Mr. Hyerczyk has been actively involved in the futures markets since 1982. He has worked in various capacities within the futures industry from technical analyst to commodity trading advisor.
DISCLAIMER:
Forex (off-exchange foreign currency futures and options or FX) trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The value of currencies may fluctuate and investors may lose all or more than their original investments. Risks also include, but are not limited to, the potential for changing political and/or economic conditions that may substantially affect the price and/or liquidity of a currency. The impact of seasonal and geopolitical events is already factored into market prices. Prices in the underlying cash or physical markets do not necessarily move in tandem with futures and options prices. The leveraged nature of FX trading means that any market movement will have an equally proportional effect on your deposited funds and such may work against you as well as for you. In no event should the content of this correspondence be construed as an express or implied promise or guarantee from James A. Hyerczyk and J.A.H. Research and Trading or its subsidiaries and/or affiliates that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of positions such as "spread" or "straddle" trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information contained in this correspondence is intended for informational purposes only and was obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
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