EUR USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3467; (P) 1.3715; (R1) 1.3883;

EUR/USD falls further to as low as 1.3504 today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 1.3712 minor resistance holds. As discussed before, break of .3629 cluster support is consistent with the view that rise from 1.2423 has completed already. Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.4719 at 1.3242 first. Break will bring retest of 1.2329 low. On the upside, above 1.3712 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But a break of 1.4360 resistance is needed to confirm that fall from 1.4719 has completed. Otherwise, short term risk remains on the downside.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom no doubt in place at 1.2329 and fall from 1.6038 should have completed. Whether such fall is impulsive or corrective in nature is debatable. But after all, in either case, as long as 1.4867 resistance holds, such decline is still in favor to resume. Though, some larger scale consolidation could be seen first. However, above 1.4867 will dampen the bearish view and argue that stronger rally would be seen to retest 1.6038 record high.