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The Forex Pattern Price Time Report - NZD USD - Evening Session

By:   James Hyerczyk
  • 25-08-2008
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The NZD USD remained under pressure on Monday as traders pressed this pair back toward the low of the year at .6823.  Despite the seven day rally, the trend remains down.  The action today indicates that the short-term rally was likely short-covering.  The economy is still weak and lower commodity prices should continue to erode support.  Unless there is sudden news which puts pressure on the U.S. economy such as credit crisis problems or sharply higher crude oil, look for a test of .6823 over the short-term.

Technically, this market has formed a short-term range between .6823 and .7217.  This range has created a retracement zone at .7020 to .6974.  The main trend is still down, but counter-trend buying came in at .7035 inside this zone.  This is an attempt to try to form a secondary higher bottom.  If the market can hold this zone as support then it may take another run at .7217 in an attempt to turn the main trend up on the daily chart.  If the retracement zone fails to hold, then look for a sideways-to-lower trade over the near term.  

PATTERN

Main Trend:  Down
Main Trend Top:  .7761 (07-15-08)
Main Trend Bottom:  .6823 (08-13-08)

PRICE

.7403          .618 Retracement
.7292          50% Retracement
.7217          Main Trend Top (08-21-08)
.7175          Weekly Gann Angle Down****
.7161          Gann Angle Down

.7036             New York Close

.7053          Weekly Gann Angle Up****
.7020          50% Retracement
.7003          Gann Angle Up
.6974          .618 Retracement
.6913          Gann Angle Up
.6868          Gann Angle Up
.6823          Main Trend Bottom (08-13-08)

TIME

None

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Next Analysis: The Pattern Price Time Report - USD JPY - Evening Session
Content Provided by:
James Hyerczyk

James A. Hyerczyk is a registered Commodity Trading Advisor with the National Futures Association.

Mr. Hyerczyk has been actively involved in the futures markets since 1982. He has worked in various capacities within the futures industry from technical analyst to commodity trading advisor.


DISCLAIMER:
Forex (off-exchange foreign currency futures and options or FX) trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The value of currencies may fluctuate and investors may lose all or more than their original investments. Risks also include, but are not limited to, the potential for changing political and/or economic conditions that may substantially affect the price and/or liquidity of a currency. The impact of seasonal and geopolitical events is already factored into market prices. Prices in the underlying cash or physical markets do not necessarily move in tandem with futures and options prices. The leveraged nature of FX trading means that any market movement will have an equally proportional effect on your deposited funds and such may work against you as well as for you. In no event should the content of this correspondence be construed as an express or implied promise or guarantee from James A. Hyerczyk and J.A.H. Research and Trading or its subsidiaries and/or affiliates that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of positions such as "spread" or "straddle" trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information contained in this correspondence is intended for informational purposes only and was obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.


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