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We’re getting closer to historical high
By: Nexum Capital Markets - 10-04-2007
0votesFundamentals will be decisive on the run to 1.3600
Last week was pretty calm due to Easter holidays around the globe, but remember that after holidays traders come in with a trigger happy finger. We might begin to see wider movements during the week and volatility will be coming back to normal within a few days. We expect to see a relatively calm market during the first few days but on Wednesday’s US session we’ll see a radical change and EUR/USD might begin to go up for the rest of the week.This movement to the north of our graphs will be mainly due to fundamentals. Wednesday will be the first day with a relevant release, the minutes of the last FOMC meeting will give us an insight to what is going on with the monetary policy and what we can expect in future meetings. Thursday will be very important; we have the verdict by ECB on the interest rate followed with an appearance by Trichet. We expect to see no movement in the interest rate due to the positive releases Euro zone has been receiving, however we expect to see a hawkish Trichet speaking about the positive outlook on the zones economy. This could easily start an upward trend that will later be confirmed by the bad ‘IPI’ numbers for the US. Friday will also be important as we see a decline on the Trade Balance and an increase on ‘PPI’ for the US. This could easily take EUR/USD over 1.3550 and finish the week with an upward trend ready to explode north wise during the following weeks.
The technical side will not be very useful this week because EUR/USD is now over most important resistances. We have the first weekly resistance over 1.3430 so we still have space to prepare our long positions for what looks to be a bullish week for the EUR/USD.
Remember to be patient and stay focused on important releases throughout the week as we see the beginning of an upward trend being set in front of our eyes. Let’s have a plan and take advantage of every opportunity the market gives us.
Next Analysis: Can EUR/USD go higher?Content Provided by:
Nexum Capital Markets
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