The Greek Picture in the Numbers

Austerity is a fiscal drag. Unemployment 20.9%. Indust prod -11.3% YoY. Retail Sales down. Trade deficit worse. Tax revenues are down.  (click on picture above for PDF). I don’t know what all the excitement is about?

Nevertheless must be disciplined to the technical picture in the pair. The 5 PM close from yesterday was 1.3259. A move below tht level would help. Absent that, the market will do what it has to do and the pair remains supported. What’s the saying???  It’s hard to fight city hall.



USDJPY overtakes next target. Can the momentum continue?



The USDJPY has overtaken the next hurdle above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the November 2011 high to the low reached in February. That level comes in at the 77.356 level The next targets above come in at 77.61 and then the midpoint of the same move down at 77.77.

As long as the hurdles can be broken and the price bias stay above previous resistance (i.e., the 100 hour MA, the 38.2% retracement level), the market is happy. As soon as there is disappointment and a break of these levels, traders tend to get discouraged and liquidate.

EURUSD: 1.3279-88 is increasing in importance



The 1.3279-88 levels are increasing in importance for the EURUSD . The level was a high ceiling for yesterday’s trading and has been holding as support over the last few hours of trading. The level is also the 38.2% of the move up from yesterday’s low and the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart are currently converged at the 1.3280 level (100 bar MA is also going sideways).  Stay above and bullish bias remains.  There should be stops on a break.

USDJPY steps toward the next target



The momentum in the USDJPY has continued and the price continues to rachet higher (see prior post ). The pair has now breached the next target resistance at the 77.61 level (3 in the chart above). The next target is 77.77 (4 above) which is the midpoint of the move down from the BOJ intervention high.  A move above would look toward the 200 day MA at the 78.08 level (currently) followed by the 61.8% at 78.18.

The last leg to the upside has also moved above the channel resistance at 77.50.  This trendline is now support for intraday buyers. Staying above keeps the bullish bias in tact for the pair. Moving back into the channel, could lead to some liquidation/profit taking.



usdhkd breaks out of this hourly wedge.



usdhkd breaks out of this hourly wedge giving a bullish signal.

usd/sgd bounced off support line.



usd/sgd bounced off support line giving a bullish signal. The pair might start testing the retracement levels from this recent move down.