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Week in Review Part III: Foreign Affairs

Published 01/11/2012, 02:33 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
Iran: The mullahs ratcheted up the tensions this week. First, the government announced it had produced the first nuclear fuel rod from uranium ore deposits inside the country. Then on Monday, Iran announced it had successfully test fired a series of intermediate- and long-range ballistic and cruise missiles during its naval exercise in the Gulf as it warned again it could stop the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz if the West carried out threats to impose stricter sanctions. The U.S. said it will not allow any disruption of traffic in the Gulf as the Fifth Fleet stood by, while the White House initiated sanctions targeting Iran’s central bank and financial sector. At the end of the month, the European Union will decide on whether to ban Iranian oil imports, which account for about 440,000 barrels a day.

[Japan and South Korea receive 10% of their crude needs from Iran, so this becomes a tough topic for them too; the impact of sanctions on the two nations and whether they would be granted waivers to allow them to receive Iranian oil as long as they are cooperating on sanctions against Iran’s nuclear program directly. The South Korean government, for one, is looking for its refiners to voluntarily reduce crude imports from Iran during the next few months.]

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said, “I doubt Iran can afford to seriously consider closing the Strait of Hormuz, even in the scenario of tighter sanctions. Such a move would turn the entire world against it. In their distress, the Iranians are exhausting their pool of threats, in what is also an attempt to deter the world from further sanctions.”

I am not concerned in the least that Iran will act to close the Strait for more than a day or two before its navy and shore batteries are blown to pieces. Forget the U.S., there is a ton of other firepower in the region. Now if they were stupid enough to lay a bunch of mines, that’s a different story. Either way, the Iranians are only hurting themselves and risking a revolution that this time could succeed.

This week the oil market would have moved a lot higher if the Iranian threats were taken more seriously, with crude (as measured by West Texas Int.) nearing $105 but then backing off to finish the week at $101.50.

Separately, Joby Warrick of the Washington Post reports on a topic near and dear to my heart, going back many years:

“Iran has…dramatically expanded its diplomatic missions throughout (Latin America) and dispatched members of its elite Quds Force – the military unit U.S. officials in October linked to a foiled assassination plot in Washington – to serve in its embassies, U.S. officials and Iran experts say.”

Iranian President Ahmadinejad is making a trip to South and Central America this month to shore up relations.

But on a happy note, at week’s end U.S. naval forces rescued 13 Iranian sailors being held by pirates with no injuries in a flawless operation. I haven’t seen an official Iranian government response as yet.

Iraq: At least 78 died on Thursday in another wave of bombings targeting Shiites, the second such large-scale attack since U.S. forces left. The bombings occurred in Baghdad and outside the southern city of Nasiriyah. Many hold the government responsible. Civil war seems a certainty.

Syria: Reports are sketchy but at least 25 were said to have been killed by a suicide bomber in Damascus on Friday, the second large attack on the once peaceful capital. President Bashar al-Assad also suffered the highest-ranking defection yet as one of his generals went over to the Free Syrian Army. This could be significant. Hopefully others follow soon, or, better yet, one of them takes Assad out directly.

Activists say over 400 have been killed across the country since Arab League observers arrived on the scene. The Arab Parliament is looking to withdraw them due to the ongoing violence. It’s really not known how many of a once proposed 500 observers are actually in the country. French President Sarkozy insisted Assad “must leave power.”

“The massacres being committed by the Syrian regime rightly arouse disgust and revolt in the Arab world, in France, in Europe and everywhere in the world,” he said.
Hizbullah, however, reiterated its support for Assad.

Israel: Negotiators for Israel and the Palestinians met in Amman, Jordan for the first direct talks in 16 months and agreed to meet again this coming week. The atmosphere was characterized as “positive” as the two sides addressed security issues. There is zero cause for optimism, however.

On the more important issue of the day, aside from the ongoing threat from Hizbullah, 1,500 ultra-Orthodox men protested what they call “oppression” and “incitement” of the “secular community” against them. The Orthodox have bizarrely dressed their children in Nazi prison camp garb. One man told the Jerusalem Post:

“What’s happening is exactly like what happened in Germany. It started with incitement and continued to different types of oppression.”

Oh brother. These people are so dangerous, it just needs to be said. At least opposition leader Tzipi Livni condemned the haredi. Defense Minister Barak said the government should consider some of the Orthodox settler ‘gangs’ as terrorist organizations.

Prime Minister Netanyahu, though, doesn’t want to alienate his far-right supporters, so he’s rejecting what is indeed an appropriate label. Heck, they’ve been attacking Israel Defense Forces in the outposts, vandalizing mosques…they want both a civil war and war with the Palestinians, and as I wrote last week, this is going to end very badly.

Afghanistan: For the first time the Taliban publicly expressed interest in negotiating with Washington, this after the militants said they wouldn’t negotiate while foreign troops remained. So every now and then this topic comes up and I can only counter; peace with the Taliban? Have their attitudes towards women changed? Will little girls be allowed to go to school? These people haven’t changed in the least (and killed another eight NATO soldiers on Friday). It’s nothing more than a trap.

[Officially, U.S. deaths in Afghanistan were down from 499 in 2010 to 417 last year. NATO deaths fell from 711 to 565.]

Yemen: As expected, President Ali Abdullah Saleh isn’t stepping down after all in yet another bluff. His son has launched a crackdown against dissident elements in the security services in a further sign the family is trying to beat down the uprising, even as hundreds of thousands marched, calling for Saleh to be put on trial for the deaths of protesters. Saleh had signed a transfer of power agreement in November.

Libya: Two militia groups battled it out for two hours in central Tripoli, leaving four dead. This was predictable. I wouldn’t quite make any travel plans here yet. As a Wall Street Journal reporter described the scene, while heavy weapons are largely invisible during the day, “at night, the sprawling city becomes a hive of heavily guarded enclaves, most districts possessing their own weapons stockpiles and deploying their local guardsman to stand post at the major intersections leading to their homes.”

So, what’s the Arab Spring scorecard thus far?

Tunisia: who cares
Egypt: worse
Libya: not better except for removal of Gaddafi
Yemen: worse
Bahrain: not better
Syria: far worse
Morocco: better

North/South Korea: As the world waits to see how and when the Great Successor Kim Jong Un will flex his muscles in his attempt to consolidate power, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak said in a New Year’s speech that the Korean peninsula was at a “turning point” with opportunities for positive change, but that Seoul would “react strongly” if provoked by the North. Lee said he would resume aid-for-disarmament talks if Pyongyang halted its nuclear activities.

In a series of statements, North Korea in turn warned there would be no change in inter-Korean relations as long as Lee is South Korea’s president, calling him a “rude political gangster,” and that the Seoul government was “a despicable immoral and depraved horde.”

“Glorify this year 2012 as a year of proud victory, a year when an era of prosperity is unfolding,” the North said. “The whole Party, the entire army and all the people should possess a firm conviction that they will become human bulwarks and human shields in defending Kim Jong Un unto death….The entire army should place absolute trust in and follow Kim Jong Un.”

Other statements did emphasize that the country should turn itself “into an economic giant,” which is mildly encouraging if you seek stability.

Meanwhile, a U.S. expert on North Korea believes Pyongyang’s progress towards a nuclear-capable missile is probably further along than once thought. According to Larry Niksch, who used to prepare reports on the North for Congress, they are possibly just a year or two from developing a nuclear warhead compact enough to be fitted to its medium-range Nodong missile.

China: On Friday, the government warned the U.S. not to be an aggressor in the Pacific, but, in an official editorial, said the increased U.S. presence could add to more stability and prosperity in the region.

Earlier, President Hu Jintao wrote in a Communist Party magazine that “International forces are trying to Westernize and divide us by using ideology and culture. We need to realize this and be alert to this danger.”

So the government continues its crackdown on the Internet, especially social-media sites that are hard to control.

Russia: Prime Minister Putin sent New Year’s greetings to his countrymen, though with a bit of sarcasm, wishing prosperity “to all our citizens regardless of their political persuasion, including those who sympathize with leftist forces and those situated on the right, below, above, however you like.” I read that in Russian “the sexual innuendo was clear.” Putin is known for this kind of language when dismissing his critics.

Police arrested 60 protesters last weekend in Moscow, a group chanting against 12 years of Putin’s rule. Another mass demonstration is set for Feb. 4. The presidential election is on March 4.

Hungary: As alluded to above, this place is a mess. Dissidents accuse Viktor Orban of “destroying the democratic rule of law,” in a statement entitled “The decline of democracy – the rise of dictatorship,” accusing Orban further of “removing checks and balances and pursuing a systematic policy of closing autonomous institutions.”
Among the new laws Orban’s Fidesz party pushed through in the last weeks of the year is a bill allowing the government to appoint members of the central bank’s rate-setting council.

Editorial / London Times

“(Fidesz) has left Hungary’s Opposition, its neighbors and new partners in the European Union aghast.

“The new constitution…is an extraordinary affront to basic liberties. It vastly increases the power of the ruling party, reimposes state control on the central banks, limits the independence of the courts, politicizes the judiciary, holds the Opposition criminally responsible for the former Communist Party’s misdeeds, gives a three-man government cabal the power to veto any budget, subverts the sovereignty of its neighbors by allowing their Hungarian minorities to vote in Hungarian elections and, most disgracefully, attempts to reimpose state regulation of religion by reducing the number of acknowledged faiths and sects from 300 to 14 while denying any official place in society for Muslim, Buddhist or Hindu congregations unless they have operated in Hungary for at least 20 years….

“Even more ominously, the interference in the judicial system…returns Hungary to the monopoly of power by the ruling party under which it suffered for more than 40 years.

“All this is incompatible with EU membership. This must be made bluntly plain to the new autocrats in Budapest. Hungary is demanding 20 billion euro in emergency EU help for its struggling economy. Not a cent should be paid while this disgraceful constitution remains in force.”

Protests are spreading; tens of thousands in Budapest the other day.

France: It’s become tougher to become a French citizen as you have to take a harder language test and swear allegiance to “French values.” Talk about pandering to the far right ahead of the April presidential election (to the possible detriment of Marine Le Pen, the National Front candidate…though I stand by my prediction she makes the run-off). On the language side, you have to prove you can speak French as well as an average French 15-year-old. Drat! I guess I have to remain a tourist.

Britain: An authoritative study reveals that 53% of the workforce in Britain suffered a salary freeze or cut in 2011, with only one in 10 matching inflation. The pay squeeze has caught up with public sector workers.

Which leads me to the issue of Prime Minister David Cameron. In 2010, I named him my “Person of the year,” as “Cameron showed both political courage and savvy.” I noted that all eyes would be on Britain the first 4-5 months of 2011 “because the prime minister’s austerity program, that he ran on, and which makes him so unusual, begins to hit in earnest. We’ve seen some minor protests thus far but will they gather speed or will the British people provide an example for the rest of us a la during World War II and the blitz? Some say the austerity plan is too severe, but others in Europe, by necessity, are following suit….The grand experiment is on. We all should want Cameron to succeed.”

I added on 3/5/11:

“If Cameron’s Britain survives the coming pain with its head still high, that will send a super signal to the rest of Europe and across the pond to the United States.

But if Britain’s economy tumbles back into full-blown recession, then all bets are off when it comes to others proceeding with needed fiscal discipline.”

That was a year ago. I would argue he didn’t succeed, but he also didn’t fail. Government revenues, for example, are increasing, but Britain is no doubt entering recession with the rest of the continent.

And then last month, Cameron declared his independence from the EU, refusing to be part of a new treaty being worked on for the proposed European fiscal union.
Andrew Roberts, a historian and friend of Cameron’s, recently opined in the Wall Street Journal.

“The mistake that the liberal media constantly make, especially for some reason in America, is assuming that when Britons are isolated in Europe, they are also uncomfortable. Yet since the 16th century it has almost always been precisely when she was most isolated that she was later proved most right. And whereas President Sarcastic – does he have any other form of address when talking to opponents? – is currently the least popular president of France in the history of the Fifth Republic, Mr. Cameron saw his Conservative Party overtake Labour in approval ratings after he exercised the veto.

“British Foreign Secretary William Hague has written a superb biography of William Pitt the Younger, whose most famous and effective speech comprised one sentence during the Napoleonic Wars: ‘England has saved herself by her example and will, I trust, save Europe by her example.’ King George VI actually rejoiced after the fall of France, writing in his diary 1940: ‘Personally, I feel happier that we have no allies to be polite to and pamper.’ That is the true voice of Britons, and one that David Cameron has articulated superbly.”

Michael Portillo / London Times

“ ‘A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers,’ remarked Plato, the critic of Athenian democracy.
“In the coming years, we shall see whether democratic governments in the West can make good choices, faced with falling living standards, reduced expectations and increased inequality.

“The answer is far from clear, because democracy in its modern form is quite new. Britain gave the vote to all adult men and women on equal terms only in 1928. In 1941 there were 11 democracies in the world.

“So the form of government enjoyed now by more than a hundred countries has shallow roots. Its broad global extension is a post-second world war phenomenon. During that brief period, democracy has been inextricably linked with steadily growing national wealth for most countries. Democratic politicians have little experience of managing decline.

“Instances where they have had to do so offer little encouragement. Argentina, Venezuela and Russia were once on the global list of democracies, but after their economic shocks, I would hesitate to include them today. Greece and Italy, racked by national debt, have been handed over to the rule of unelected officials.

“Plato’s chief fear was that ‘dictatorship naturally arises out of democracy’ and ‘the most extreme liberty’ was liable to provide the ‘most aggravated form of tyranny.’ History bears out that the most brutal dictatorships…were carried out in the name of the people. But the most obvious failing of democracies today is that competition between politicians seeking election causes them to promise too much….

“Cameron cannot be expecting to win the next election as a popularity contest. He will succeed not because people like him, but if he convinces them that our dire situation demands tough measures, and leadership that he rather than (opposition leader) Miliband can supply. That is the Margaret Thatcher approach. However, it is not consoling that around Europe even bold incumbents are being swept away.

“Nor is it heartening that a country such as Greece, which has descended into the economic and social abyss, and changed its government, remains in political paralysis, unable to adopt measures deemed necessary by its prime minister.

“In Britain, the government may have abandoned promising too much. But so far, Britons have been required to make fewer sacrifices than the Greeks, Irish or Spanish.

It is not clear how we will react if obliged to cut much more deeply. Nor is it apparent that the government envisages making the radical changes in welfare and education that our lack of competitiveness demands. Cameron might say that presiding over a coalition makes such a revolution impossible, but in truth the scale of change remains unthinkable in a democratic system.”

Mexico: The U.S. has lost about 6,300 men and women in Iraq and Afghanistan combined. 12,000 were killed in Mexico’s drug war last year alone. More than 50,000 since President Calderon’s crackdown began in 2006.

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