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Weekly Focus Sweden: Fiscal Cliff Negotiations To Weigh On Sentiment‏

ByDanske Markets
Published 12/03/2012, 04:10 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
Market Movers Ahead

We expect increased frustration with the lack of progress in the fiscal cliff negotiations in the coming week.

Besides the political developments, the main focus in the US is the release of the November employment report and the ISM index. While labour data are likely to be distorted by Hurricane Sandy, ISM is expected to rise slightly.

In the euro area the Eurogroup and Ecofin meet for their regular meeting in Brussels on Monday and Tuesday. The Eurogroup will take steps to finalise a rescue package for Cyprus. During the week Greece is expected to progress with the debt buy back.

Focus on final PMI data and revised euro area Q3 GDP data. German industrial production and orders are expected to have increased in October, reversing part of the dramatic drop in September. If not, it will add further evidence to the picture of a very weak Q4 12.

Global Update
Troika struck a deal on Greece. The markets have reacted positively as it was hinted that Greece will be given further relief when a primary surplus is reached.

Peripherals continue to perform strongly in the government bond markets.

In the US, the chicken game continues as both parties are waiting for the other to make the first concession.

In terms of US data, the week was mixed. Although we saw an upward revision to Q3 GDP growth to 2.7% q/q AR from 2.0%, the details were weak.

The European Commission confidence indicators confirm signs that soft indicators have bottomed.

The Japanese industrial production data suggest stabilisation and possibly a substantial recovery into 2013.

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