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Saxo Bank Forex Analysis Archive

Below you will be able to search the entire forex analysis archive added by Saxo Bank . You may filter the results, by category and year.
 
Categories: Market Analysis - Fundamental - Technical - Futures - Central Banks   | 2006 - 2007 - 2008
 
On 20-11-2008
US equities fall into the close and trigger further risk aversion in Asia with usual outcome for currencies: a stronger USD and JPY.
More to come if Dow capitulates through 8000 in near term. EUR weakness should continue as long as rate differentials with USD and JPY continue to contract.MAJOR HEADLI... Read More
On 19-11-2008
Equities dance at the edge of the precipice again, but decide not to jump this time. USD and JPY continue to bide their time in narrowing ranges.
Is bond rally spelling trouble for risk appetite? TICs data shows huge move into USD in September.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION... Read More
On 18-11-2008
Equities sliding and long end of government bond curve rallying. This could spell more strength for USD and JPY.
Market mood sours after Citi announces huge job cuts and markets can't find positive spin. Should AUDUSD trade lower?MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSIO... Read More
On 18-11-2008
Equities dance at the edge of the precipice again, but decide not to jump this time. USD and JPY continue to bide their time in narrowing ranges.
Is bond rally spelling trouble for risk appetite? TICs data shows huge move into USD in September.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION... Read More
On 17-11-2008
G20 issues a grab bag of hopes and promises, and pushes real decision making out to the spring of 2009 and an Obama presidency.
Japan slips into recession. Currencies relatively calm after last minute meltdown in Friday's North American session.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION... Read More
On 14-11-2008
Stocks stepped away from the brink in the US once again, triggering a desperate short squeeze on long JPY and USD positions
Move may mostly reflect nervousness ahead of weekend's G20 meeting. US Retail Sales for October could etch new historical low.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SES... Read More
On 13-11-2008
GBP collapses on dour BoE report and prospect for lower rates. Will EURUSD break to new lows after ugly German GDP number?
Risk aversion back on the front burner again as US equity indices eye the lows for the cycle. JPY crosses seem a bit less panicky this time around.MAJOR HEADLINES... Read More
On 11-11-2008
Chinese stimulus plan only stimulates markets for a few hours as risk aversion may return in force. Market seems to be grasping for a catalyst.
Rising nervousness could see JPY crosses testing lower. EURUSD breaks downside of recent formation, but then reverses, underlining lack of conviction at the moment.MAJO... Read More
On 10-11-2008
Risk appetite rises on massive new stimulus plan from China and despite awful employment report from the US on Friday.
Rally in risk may not last for long. Economic calendar focus this week on German Q3 growth and October US Retail Sales report.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION... Read More
On 07-11-2008
BOE cuts massive 150 bps and sends GBP on a roller coaster ride. US employment report out today likely an ugly one.
Risk aversion rose yesterday in the late US session, but no big follow through in Asia so far. JPY crosses bounce back a bit.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESS... Read More
On 06-11-2008
How much will the ECB and BOE cut? How much does the market care? Larger than expected cut could actually be bullish for EUR.
US posts worst ISM non-manufacturing number in 11-year history of the survey. Shield your eyes ahead of tomorrow's US employment report.MAJOR HEADLINES – PR... Read More
On 05-11-2008
USD edges stronger as Obama elected next US president. How much longer does the risk appetite honeymoon last?
US ISM Non-manufacturing number could be first ugly economic data point to remind us of the current economic woes.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION... Read More
On 04-11-2008
RBA cuts more than expected, hits AUD crosses. Worst ISM in 26 years so far fails to dent US stocks or the USD.
Long bonds rally again yesterday, boosting the JPY. US election drama this evening - tough to gauge potential reaction.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION... Read More
On 03-11-2008
Big week ahead for markets with US presidential election tomorrow amid signs of global economy hitting the skids.
JPY weaker on sharply higher rates and commodities, but sell-off may not have legs beyond the shortest term.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION... Read More
On 24-10-2008
EURUSD to make new lows
Russian and CEE EM under increasing pressure. IMF talking about doing a rescue package.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSIONLatest H... Read More
On 23-10-2008
USD continues higher
Emerging Market currenciesMAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSIONRBNZ cuts cash rate 100bp to 6.5%, as expectedJA... Read More
On 22-10-2008
GBP collapsing on King comments
Mervyn King had some extremely bearish comments yesterday.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSIONBoE's King-UK economy likely en... Read More
On 21-10-2008
Optimism in US rises on Bernanke's endorsement of new stimulus measures. EURUSD at tipping point - will it head lower?
Bank of Canada widely expected to cut 50 bps today. Room for further downside in CAD?LATEST HEADLINESNew Zealand Q3 Consumer Prices ros... Read More
On 20-10-2008
JPY on the defensive after the quietest weekend in recent memory. Is the worst of the financial panic phase of the deleveraging behind us?
 Bank of Canada, Riksbank and RBNZ may all be set to cut rates this week - RBNZ may cut 100 basis points on Thursday.LATEST HEADLINES... Read More
On 17-10-2008
Late US equity rally sparks comeback for JPY crosses, sees USD easing. Credit spreads show little relief in risk aversion so far, however.
Lehman CDS settlement coming back to haunt markets? University of Michigan to show double-dip in US confidence?LATEST HEADLINESUS... Read More
On 15-10-2008
Rally in risk hits a rough patch as uncertainty continues. But credit spreads are easing and must ease more for a continued renewal of risk appetite.
US September Retail Sales on tap - the credit crisis began hitting with full force in mid-September - any USD implications?LATEST HEADLINES... Read More
On 14-10-2008
Risk appetite bounces back aggressively with new Paulson plan to buy stake in US banks. JPY and CHF longs head for the exits...
 How much further can we bounce? AUD and GBP making impressive gains across the board.LATEST HEADLINESUS plan emerges to inject $2... Read More
On 13-10-2008
Another whirlwind weekend of developments has officialdom scrambling to get ahead of the curve and halt systemic vortex of events. Risk appetite rallying sharply in response.
G-7 communique expresses intent to ease banking crisis with "all available tools", but specifics are vague.LATEST HEADLINESUS... Read More
On 09-10-2008
Unprecedented coordinated rate cut by six major central banks creates no clear market outcome thus far other than more volatility.
British rescue plan wins critical praise - but not from the market as GBP tumbles. Week to end with big CDS settlement.LATEST HEADLINES... Read More
On 08-10-2008
AUD collapses in sympathy with equity markets. Dramatic Fed steps to make unsecured loans fail to boost sentiment.
UK bank rescue plan this morning. Fed steps easing some money market stress and could throw the EUR some supportLATEST HEADLINESUS Aug.... Read More
On 07-10-2008
AUDJPY dropped as much as 13% yesterday - was that the capitulation? Fed considers unprecedented move to unsecured loans
100-bp cut from RBA sees AUD bouncing vigorously from yesterday's lows. Risk aversion hopefully has peaked in the short term.LATEST HEADLINES... Read More
On 06-10-2008
Bottom falls out of EURJPY as Germany forced to insure deposits and as EU summit ends in promise NOT to coordinate action.
Market action looks dire. USD and JPY continue to power strong as TARP bailout package failed to ignite rally in risk appetite.THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SE... Read More
On 03-10-2008
USD reaches new highs yesterday but eases back ahead of potentially gruesome US employment report. No signs of hope yet from credit market.
Key test for market sentiment today with TARP vote up in the House and after US equities touched recent lows yesterday.MAJOR HEADLINES... Read More
On 02-10-2008
US Senate approves altered bailout plan. House to vote Friday - but will Democrats revolt against new measures this time?
ECB on tap after 1.4000 falls again overnight. Huge trendline under fire in EURUSD in 1.3900 area - is 1.3400 next?MAJOR HEADLINES... Read More
On 01-10-2008
USD sweeps stronger across the board as banking woes go worldwide. Equity and yield bounceback trigger enormous USDJPY reversal.
USD may continue to reign supreme for now despite likely very ugly economic data in the pipeline.MAJOR HEADLINESUS Sep. Chicago P... Read More
On 30-09-2008
Equity market swoon on TARA failure smacks carry trades for enormous losses. Uncertainty at first hurt the USD, but bounceback now materializing.
Contagion risks to "real" economy grow by the day as Congress not likely to act again until late this week.MAJOR HEADLINES... Read More
On 29-09-2008
Financial sector woes spreading to Europe as modified US bailout plan moves forward. USD up and EUR down on the weekend's developments.
Key for markets now is whether frozen credit/money market shows any sign of improvement.MAJOR HEADLINESNew Zealand Aug. Trade Bal... Read More
On 29-09-2008
... Read More
On 26-09-2008
TARA bailout plan thrown into doubt by last minute Republican gambit. Risk appetite dives on the news and JPY moves stronger.
High drama in Washington as politics and presidential campaign suddenly force their way onto the scene.MAJOR HEADLINESNew Zealand Q2 GD... Read More
On 25-09-2008
Credit markets are seizing up again. Credit spreads blow back out and USD still looking shaky as world watches and waits for TARA.
TARA is world's largest financial experiment and an acronym for the history books. Let's all hope it works.MAJOR HEADLINESNew Zea... Read More
On 24-09-2008
Congressional resistance to bailout package keeps impatient markets nervous - USD sell-off takes a brief pause. Germany IFO on tap.
JPY remains on the weak side as fear level has not lowered yields appreciably and on Asian equity market comeback. Bernanke and Paulson to testify again today.MAJOR HEA... Read More
On 23-09-2008
USD fall deepens as market frets its ability to retain value with coming onslaught of debt issuance. Investors suddenly seeking safe haven in metals in recent days.
Liquidity likely to remain low and volatility high. Next big focus for EURUSD up at 1.5000 level.THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION... Read More
On 22-09-2008
USD takes a breather on higher risk appetite and as the world frets the cost of unprecedented bailout.
Carry trades also getting a boost - but for how long? Focus this week on what form of the Paulson bailout plan gets congressional approval.MAJOR HEADLINES –... Read More
On 19-09-2008
Forex Market Update
More market fireworks as Paulson plan for troubled US assets triggers enormous rally in risk appetite. But how long will it last?... Read More
On 18-09-2008
Forex Market Update
Safe haven status of the greenback wearing thin for the USD as European majors stage a comeback. How far can correction go?    Market meltdown spar... Read More
On 17-09-2008
Relief on US Fed's takeover of AIG gives carry trades a breather - but for how long? USDJPY having a go at 200-day moving average.
Stocks bounce back above key support and bonds sell-off, supporting a bit of risk appetite in FX as well. But market conditions remain extremely nervous... Read More
On 11-09-2008
USD and JPY juggernauts grind their way to new gains with EURUSD 1.4000 and EURJPY 150.00 levels breached. Capitulation may yet lie ahead if equities tumble further.
 RBNZ cuts 50 bps vs. 25 bps widely expected and NZD knocked for steep loss. AUDUSD slashes through 0.8000 level for the first time since Bear Stearns crisis.... Read More
On 10-09-2008
Market jittery and liquidity low - capitulation on its way? OPEC tries to put a floor on oil prices with a production cut.
JPY crosses pausing at key lows as US long yields nearing 40-year lows. Could JPY and CHF strength actually accelerate here?MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION... Read More
On 09-09-2008
Unprecedented USD move picks up speed after market decides that Fannie and Freddie bailout is a mere bump in the road.
EURUSD used to stop at big round figures on the way up - but will 1.4000 serve as any barrier on the downward slide?MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION... Read More
On 08-09-2008
US Treasury Nationalization of Fannie and Freddie finally halts USD charge. High yielders bounce the most on this development.
All markets change recent direction on this move. How long will the reaction last? Volatility is the only short-term guarantee.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION... Read More
On 05-09-2008
JPY and USD smashing stronger to new big levels overnight. Was this a capitulation or is there more to come?
US employment report likely to show the negative trend continuing. Canada Ivey PMI and Employment Report also on tap.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION... Read More
On 04-09-2008
Today's ECB meeting: a turning point or an accelerator for the EUR decline? BOE also on tap - any chance of a surprise cut?
Will ECB continue to declare "no bias"? EURCHF nears critical support at 1.6000. US ISM Non-manufacturing up later.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESS... Read More
On 03-09-2008
USD strength powers ahead to new highs overnight ahead of big end-of-week event risks. Q2 EuroZone GDP and Jul. Retail Sales on tap.
Will tomorrow's ECB meeting provide any relief from the USD juggernaut? BoC likely on hold today.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION... Read More
On 02-09-2008
Plummeting oil prices continue to stoke USD rally. AUD bounces a bit on relief that RBA only cut 25 bps.
UK Mortgage Approvals rate has dropped almost 75% from peak of less than 2 years ago as GBP tailspin finds no relief.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION... Read More
On 01-09-2008
GBP falls out of bed overnight to a new record low against the EUR. RBA on tap tonight as market mulls size of rate cut.
US Labor Day Holiday today. Hurricane Gustav fortunately so far not measuring up to Katrina's wrath and likely to have limited market effect.MAJOR HEADLINES –... Read More
On 28-08-2008
Any steam left in the U.S. economy?
With second quarter US GDP release scheduled for this afternoon, the markets will be keenly observing state of the world's largest economy for further signs of future Fed action.... Read More
On 27-08-2008
USD Bulls not Satisfied Post FOMC Minutes
Despite a run for new 2008 highs in the USD-index, the FOMC minutes did not justify further gains in the USD.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION... Read More
On 26-08-2008
USD Bulls Back in Business
While EUR continues to come under heavy weight of poor fundamentals, this time around contracting German economy, US dollar looks to establish itself almost as an alternative flight-to-safety curr... Read More
On 25-08-2008
Illiquid Markets Keep the Majors in Tight Ranges
With London closed for trading and no significant economic releases on the schedule today, illiquid markets and range trading are set to prevail in the FX markets.... Read More
On 22-08-2008
Asian stock losses not enough to deter yen funded carries
While the moderate gains in American stocks has failed excite the Asian stocks, the steady outflow of yen from Japan continues to keep yen on offer and carry traders well equipped.... Read More
On 22-08-2008
Daily Analysis
The US dollar exchange rate is enjoying strength at the moment unlike anything we have seen for at least a year, and it is expected to continue. One important reason for the dollar strength has bee... Read More
On 21-08-2008
Asian Equity Rally Fizzles Away, Keeping the Carry Trades in Check
With the Asian stock indexes dipping, and credit woes looking to spread ever more firmly beyond U.S., caution in carry trades once again enters the stage.MAJOR HEADLINE... Read More
On 19-08-2008
Back in the range trading mode after last week's USD buying party
While the markets have taken a breather in the frenzied USD-buying, with this afternoon's July PPI and Housing Starts figures from the US expected to give further direction to USD-longs.... Read More
On 15-08-2008
USD gains further and metals continue to melt down - where is resistance to this move?
No big data catalysts today, but volatility may nonetheless continue to shake the market.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION... Read More
On 14-08-2008
Bottom drops out of GBP after dovish BoE report. Consolidation of USD strength so far very modest as USDJPY bounces from big support.
Carry trades finally bounce a bit on oil price surge and rise in bond yields. Oil and geopolitics should be back on the radar with renewed US-Russia confrontation over Georgia.... Read More
On 13-08-2008
JPY stronger despite negative Japan GDP figure. Time for USD to consolidate some of its gains?
EURNOK approaching big support ahead of key Norges Bank rate meeting. BoE Inflation Report on tap.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION... Read More
On 12-08-2008
UK housing and consumption showing few signs of life as GBPUSD dips to 1.9000. US and Canadian trade data up today.
USD rally continues, but perhaps getting stretched in short term soon. Major resistance still somewhat far away in bigger picture, however.MAJOR HEADLINES &... Read More
On 11-08-2008
Friday saw the largest one-day USD rally in recent memory - what now? USD volatility the only safe bet.
Low yielding JPY and CHF still too weak considering market environment. Japan and EuroZone likely to show negative Q2 GDP reports this week.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREV... Read More
On 08-08-2008
The end of the joy ride in EURUSD?
With Trichet managing once again to talk down the euro, a flood of unwinding in EURUSD is ensuing.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION... Read More
On 07-08-2008
USD Index takes a peek above 200-day moving average for the first time since early 2007 ahead of ECB, BOE.
Neither central bank expected to move on rates - Trichet press conference the focus there. New Chinese capital controls could have important bearing on the USD.MA... Read More
On 06-08-2008
Fed perhaps on the dovish side of expectations, but market sees little response to new Fed wording. Focus shifts to tomorrow's ECB and BOE meetings.
US ISM Non-manufacturing a tad stronger than expected. Latest Australian and New Zealand employment reports up tonight.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION... Read More
On 05-08-2008
USD pulls to new recent high ahead of this evening's FOMC meeting. AUD falls further as RBA prepares market for coming cuts.
USDCAD also finally smashing through huge range resistance and trading above 1.0400 as oil continues to fall - may be set for higher levels still.  MAJOR HEADLINES... Read More
On 04-08-2008
Mixed US employment report does little for the USD. This week is Central Bank Week as market looks for guidance from the Fed, RBA, ECB and BOE.
RBA set to prepare the market for rate cuts ahead at tonight's cash target announcement?MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSIONN... Read More
On 31-07-2008
Oil rally slows USD strength ahead of today's US Q2 GDP and tomorrow's key employment, ISM reports.
EURCHF knocking at key resistance. JPY crosses set to fall further?MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSIONUK Jul. GfK Consumer Co... Read More
On 30-07-2008
USD makes a decisive move through first key resistance levels on banking stock relief and oil drop. More USD strength to come despite weak US employment report likely on the way?
AUD in trouble and may stay that way with more key Australian data in tonight's Asian session.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION... Read More
On 29-07-2008
Mixed data out of Japan does little to inspire a tired JPY. US Consumer Confidence may beat expectations today in light of recent surveys.
Momentum fizzling in USD rally - it's time for the rally to pick up steam again or face a derailment.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSIONNew Zealand... Read More
On 28-07-2008
Carry trades rallied sharply Friday after Thursday's sell-off on rise in yields, but will they maintain altitude this week?
USD rally looking strongest versus commodity currencies. Busy economic calendar this week for the EuroZone and the US.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION... Read More
On 25-07-2008
USD rally faces key test as equity markets renew sell-off. Carry trades finally knocked for big losses. UK GDP on tap.
EURUSD mulls what it ought to do at 55-day moving average support after more ugly German survey data.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION... Read More
On 24-07-2008
NZD crumbles on RBNZ rate cut and dovish guidance. Surprise BOE vote at last rate decision meeting blasts GBP stronger.
Key German data on tap. USD recovery extends a bit - what now? AUDUSD at big support zone now after bout of weakness.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION... Read More
On 21-05-2008
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