Wave analysis on EUR/USD (W1) for September 16

[analytic]

On the daily chart of the pair a version of marking of the second and last figure of Double Combination (of December 23, 2007) included into development of «{с} or {iii}» wave with basic cycle of optimization of market data in one week is presented.

As it was mentioned in the last Express review proposed last mid-week, the wave activity result of the first part of the week confirmed the apprehensions about possible change of working impulse development version. The earlier calculated fifth Impulsion wave limit has been broken so we have enough reasons to revise the working version in favor of the earlier mentioned Elaborate Correction variant.
According to the complex wave activity analysis on charts with approximately weekly period of optimization the basic key factors for choosing the Elaborate Correction version by type of Double Combination as the basic and working version were confirmed.
The main observation in Correction Combination structure concerns the first pattern of the Elongated Zigzag as a pattern-simulator of impulsive market nature. Taking into account the fact that these patterns can be seen exclusively as parts of Triangles it is obvious that the bearish rally started this July with a sign of Elongated Flat formation relates to the very Reverse Alteration Triangle being a part of Elaborate Correction while [D]-wave forming.
For the second Elaborate Correction pattern after [x]-wave there is a version of possible Neo Wave Triangle forming based on the wave analysis activity on the chart with daily data optimization period. But evaluating the general [D]-segment formation period according to the previous segments its fast development mode looks rather unconvincing but in any case I assume that [D]-segment formation period should be no less that that of [A]-segment. I also assume that [D]-wave may have more complicated structure that is not obvious at the moment.

To resume the above observations, at the moment planning of short-term long positions up to 1.44 is very logic taking into note the increased level of trading risks while forming Triangle patterns when the sharp rise of market volatility may not be even related to the termination of any of its segments.


With respect,