Wave analysis on EUR/USD (MN3) of July 22, 2008

[analytic]

On W1 chart of the pair a renewed version of marking of wave activity of March, 2002 with a basic three months (quarter) cycle of market data optimization is presented.
Since my previous review of quarter period of data optimization of October 14, 2007 marking changes concerned only details displayed on the charts with a month of market data optimization. Generally the actuality of marking is still without changes with logical overviews proposed in favor of each alternative’s development that are 1st Extension Terminals by {i}-{ii}-{iii}-{iv}-{v} structure and Reverse Alternation Triangle by {a}-{b}-{c}-{d}-{e} scheme.
The additional observation is a proportion of development of ascending branches of the figure that were built according to Neely’s principles on directed and undirected activity. Now the existent development proportions are a “photo of the moment” and only when we have the confirmation of completion of directed activity we can discuss the completion of this picture as well as close completion of {c}/{iii} branch. Nevertheless there is a circumstantial condition of completion of {c}/{iii} segment. That is why I propose the idealized forecast of further development. Principal Reverse Alternation Triangle [A]-[b]-[C]-[D]-[E] in Double Combination after [X]-wave originates considerably strange situation for version of Terminal Impulsion of higher degree especially for {iii}-wave. In this case we will see the failure of third wave development that is untypical and illogical for this figure. On the other hand illogic of Terminal development is present in development characteristics of the third wave because for Terminal Impulsions with extended first wave the third wave cannot exceed very much the amplitude of 0.618 towards the first wave. Hence according to the logic of development of both alternatives Terminal version is the weakest. Though I should mention one more time that all constructions are actually based on Reverse Alternation Triangle in Double Combination of third wave and the figure of lower degree should have a lot of confirmations to have a sense. And even with a failure in a third wave of Terminal Impulsion it is logical to expect considerably durable period for the fourth wave that is limited above by failure top and by resumption boundary in 0.628 of the third wave below.
Otherwise for {a}-{b}-{c}-{d}-{e} scheme development of Reverse Alternation Triangle of higher degree {d}-wave will be the most durable segment of the figure but its completion below the {b}-wave completion is the most actual variant.

As a summary of existent logic of wave development for two versions the potential of further rise of Terminal Impulsion is equal to zero. For Reserve Alternation Triangle further rise is very possible but not above 1.68 and in this case we should revise {c}-wave structure. That is why basing on existent structure of wave analysis according to the charts of shorter time period of data optimization we have decisive arguments in favor of close beginning of bearish trend with a beginning of [d]-wave development of Reserve Alternation Triangle.



With respect,
analytic

[forexguide]

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