US Dollar Index Technical Analysis

[fxtrends]

Take a look at a daily chart of the US Dollar Index....after completing the fifth wave in late November, the ensuing false-break correction has now completed A & B of an A-B-C correction. The C wave will confirm on the loss of the 85 handle and projects a move to 84.00. This will highlight a Head & Shoulders top and if confirmed could project significant weakness for the Greenback.

[fxtrends]

The US Dollar Index again found support at the 35-day EMA, halting recent weakness and more importantly delaying the ongoing A-B-C correction pattern. Only a clearance of 87.25, the trendline connecting the Nov 21st & Dec 4th will shift momentum back in favor of the Greenback.

[fxtrends]

The US Dollar Index is once again probing 35-day EMA support. A sustained loss of latter immediately exposes the 85 handle, below which will confirm Wave C of the A-B-C correction. Wave A's equality target projects a move towards 84.00 and will highlight a Head & Shoulders top. Expect weakness to persist while below the 10-day SMA (now @ 86.40).

Strategy Summary: LONG EUR/USD from 1.2607 FOR 1.3211 (ADJUSTED TARGET), (ADJUSTED STOP) AT 1.2777

[fxtrends]

The US Dollar Index has completed an A-B-C correction to highlight a Head & Shoulders top. Expect weakness to persist while below the 10-day SMA (now @ 86.10).

Strategy Summary: LONG EUR/USD FROM 1.2607, 1/2 STOPPED AT 1.2552 (-55 pips), 1/2 MET TARGET AT 1.3211 (+604 pips), FOR A TOTAL AVG GAIN OF 274.5 pips

LOOK TO RE-BUY EUR/USD

[fxtrends]

Last week the US Dollar Index completed an A-B-C correction, highlighting a Head & Shoulders top. CFTC COT (Commitment of Traders) data confirmed a substantial reduction in speculative long Dollar positions and judging by daily increases in FX future volume and open interest, big speculators are piling into the Euro. Today's continued weakness is nearing the 100-day MA, but should be temporarily supported by 82.13, where a key 50% retracement level and a 1.618 equality projection lie. Expect weakness towards the 81 handle (H&S projection) while price-action remains below the 10-day & 20-day SMA.


Strategy Summary: RE-BUY EUR/USD AT 1.3370 FOR 1.3868 (TGT), STOP AT (1.3312)

[dancarfx]

This strong rise in the EURUSD pair makes easy tendency lines but I think we shouldn’t avoid fundamental analysis because main reasons for this are related about interest rates in the USA. By now, if we’re trading in short, useful keeping some indicators in mind. If we’re in long, keep informed about US news
Dan

[fxtrends]

The US Dollar Index weakened further on the back of the suprising and desperate measures taken by the Federal Reserve. This triggered a move below the 50% retracement of the entire 2008 recovery to briefly probe a fibonacci retracement (78.6% of 75.89-88.46) this morning. Extreme oversold daily studies should buoy a corrective fourth wave towards the 81 handle, where a cluster of retracement levels lie. Due to alternation this fourth wave should be complex since the second wave (or B wave at that point) was a simple pattern. The fifth and final wave targets previous support at 76.00. Expect selling pressure to persist while below the 10-day MA.


Strategy Summary: SOLD EUR/USD SHORT AT 1.4388 FOR A 1.3928 (CORRECTION TARGET), STOP AT 1.4444

[fxtrends]

While I predicted a shift in momentum with the US Dollar by correctly identifying a Head & Shoulders topping pattern, I have been caught off-guard by the size and speed of the latest reversal.

The primary beneficiary has been the Euro, registering it's largest one, two, and five-day gains. From a technical analyst's point-of-view, the latest move in the Euro has blown out all the chart readings and has what we call "gone parabolic."

The primary reason for this due to a fundamental shift. The Federal Reserve has lowered rates to historical levels and embarked on a path of quantitative easing. Meanwhile, the ECB has reminded the market of its reluctance to reduce rates further. This has enabled currency speculators to pour into Euro's, according to open interest and volume indicators provided by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange over the past few days.

So what now? Well, the EUR/USD is now in what is called a blow-off trend. A fast moving trend that is characterized by ascending trendlines. As of this writing, the third ascending trendline has now been breached. A sustained loss of 1.4460 temporarily relieves selling pressure and according to my wave count should set-up a consolidation pattern ahead of the next move within the current trend.

[Somya Gabriel]

Hi,

As we all can see in our daily FX news, the US dollar has spent the past week consolidating within thin ranges, as low volumes did little to spark directional trade. This left the greenback down 1 percent against the euro and up roughly 1.5 percent versus the British pound and Japanese yen by Friday's close. Meanwhile, the US dollar fell a whopping 3 percent against the Swiss franc, but even that pair remains in consolidation. However, it may only be a matter of time before USD/CHF breaks below key support at the September 22 low of 1.0696 toward 1.0500.

I feel US Dollar will remains mixed on Sluggish Trade, consumer confidence, ISM manufacturing may disappoint traders this week.

[fxtrends]

The Dollar Index has completed an A-B-C correction off the December low. A key fibonacci retracement (61.8% of 87.70-77.69) has provided resistance after Monday's clearance of the 100-day MA. Although daily studies indicate more upside potential, the latest rally has been on weak volume and open interest and thus represents a mere correction to the December down-move. If this corrective (fourth) wave remains below 84.71 (second wave base), then a .786 Fibonacci Extension will target my original fifth wave target at obvious support near the 76 handle. The first hurdle will be 82.00, a corrective trendline and 20-day MA.

Strategy Summary: LOOK TO BUY EUR/USD

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