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Categories: Market Analysis - Fundamental - Technical - Futures - Central Banks   | 2006 - 2007 - 2008
 
On 20-11-2008
Consumer Price Index: October 2008
The October estimate of consumer price index declined -1.0% (-0.961%) m/m and was up 3.7% y/y. The core ex-food and energy estimate fell -0.1%(-0.071%) m/m ... Read More

On 20-11-2008
Road to Financial Ruin
Our latest analysis in response to the latest developments is available,... Read More

On 17-11-2008
Merk Economic Calendar: Week Ahead in U.S. Financial Markets (November 17-21 2008)
By ... Read More

On 17-11-2008
Merk Investments: Retail Sales Post Record Low
Advance Retail Sales: Record LowAdvance retail sales for the month of October declined -2.8% m/m and are down -3.3% y/y/. The core ex-autos estimate fell -2.2% m/m and is up 1.7% y/y. On a... Read More

On 12-11-2008
Bretton Woods II – A Roadmap
Following calls by European leaders for a "Bretton Woods II", the Bush administration has invited the "G-20" countries to come to Washington with the lofty goal to reform the worl... Read More

On 03-11-2008
Merk Economic Calendar: Week Ahead in U.S. Financial Markets (November 3-7 2008)
Financial Markets Summary For The Week of November 3-7 2008The first week of November will see another heavy week of data releases on the calendar that will feature... Read More

On 26-10-2008
Week Ahead in U.S. Financial Markets (October 27-31 2008)
Financial Markets Summary For The Week of October 27-31 2008After the heaviest week of Fed talk and macro data releases in recent memory, the calendar will see a very ligh... Read More

On 24-10-2008
Outlook On Gold: Buying Opportunity and Hedge Against Uncertainty Ahead
Perhaps the most interesting development during the intensification of the credit crisis is that the price of gold did not climb higher than it did. Upon the initiation of the crisis in August 2007... Read More

On 22-10-2008
Day Ahead In Financial Markets
Day In Review:US Fed creates $540bln new facility to relieve pressure on money market mutual funds caused by redemption requests. Weak earnings at bellwethers Ca... Read More

On 22-10-2008
Credit Conditons One Week Into New Financial World
Merk Investments: Credit and Money Supply Indicators: One Week After Capital Injections ... Read More

On 22-10-2008
The Brief Daily Forecaster 22nd October 2008
DAILY ANALYSIS FOR USDJPYBias: Mixed - waiting for breaksBreach of 101.34 has generated follow-through lower but this has been less ... Read More

On 14-10-2008
Daily Fundamental Analysis 10.15.08
In this PDF you will find the latest Fundamental Analysis published by Merk Investments.... Read More

On 10-10-2008
Global Coordinated Rate Cut
The US Federal Reserve along with the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, the European Central Bank, Sweden Riksbank and the Swiss National Bank acted in concert to reduce short term lending rates in ... Read More

On 10-10-2008
Week Ahead in U.S. Financial Markets (October 13-17 2008)
Financial Markets Summary For The Week of October 13-17 2008The week of October 13-17 will see perhaps the most important week of macroeconomic data and Fed talk of the year... Read More

On 07-10-2008
The World in Crisis: Where are the Safe Havens?
We have been warning for some time that “there is no such thing as a safe asset anymore, you have to take a diversified approach to something as mundane as cash.” Unfortunately, the cur... Read More

On 06-10-2008
Week Ahead in U.S. Financial Markets (October 6-10 2008)
Financial Markets Summary For The Week of October 6-10 2008The week of October 6-10 will see a light week of economic data that will be dominated by the Tuesday FOMC minutes... Read More

On 25-09-2008
Budgetary Consequences Of The Financial Crisis
The consequences of the troubled asset relief program (TARP) will be felt for a number of years. The death of the investment-banking model, the transformation of the domestic system of finance and ... Read More

On 25-09-2008
Recapitalize Financial Institutions Rather than Bail Out Debt
In the coming days, Congress may authorize $700 billion to buy bad debt from financial institutions. Even if all challenges of the plan were to be overcome, the plan does not address one of the fun... Read More

On 18-09-2008
Potential Economic Fallout From Credit Crisis
The events of the past seven days have altered the shape of the market and will impact the economy going forward. The current financial crisis reflects the failure of firms to deleverage in an acce... Read More

On 12-09-2008
Federal Open Market Committee Meeting: September 16
Nearly ten years ago the Federal Open Market Committee convened a special meeting to address the problems in U.S. financial markets regarding the failure at Long Term Capital Management. It is not ... Read More

On 05-09-2008
Financial Markets Summary For The Week of September 8-12
The week of September 8-12 will see a heavy week of US macro data. Inflation will be at the forefront with import prices and producer prices released on Thursday and Friday, while the advance retai... Read More

On 15-08-2008
The Dollar: Short-Term Rebalancing Of Expectations, Long Term Risk
Recent price action in the foreign exchange market in our estimation is a function of a short-term rebalancing in expectations of global growth and demand for commodities. When combined with the pa... Read More

On 13-08-2008
The Case For and Against the Dollar
We have been cautioning for some time that volatility in the currency markets may increase further, even from the elevated levels of the past year. Nonetheless, violent market action is nerve rattl... Read More

On 08-08-2008
The Market and the Fed
The enthusiastic response of the market to the moderation in the price of imported oil and the Fed monetary statement is a bit overdone. It is based on the hope that inflation will moderate rather ... Read More

On 01-08-2008
US Budget Deficit to Grow Much Worse
The mid-session review of the federal budget released during the past week saw the White House revise its outlook for the deficit towards nominal highs. The administration is forecasting that the d... Read More

On 25-07-2008
Tale of Two Economic Releases
The upcoming week will be defined by two closely linked US macroeconomic data that will frame the debate about which direction the economy is poised to take during the latter half of 2008. Yet, the... Read More

On 18-07-2008
Dissolve Fannie And Freddie
The Chinese symbol for crisis also can be expressed as an opportunity. The current collapse of confidence in the domestic system of finance and financial leadership provides such a potential moment... Read More

On 11-07-2008
An Economy In Trouble
Over the past few weeks many notable analysts have made the case that the economy is in the process of recovery. The market has celebrated the wonder of the “resilient consumer.” Given ... Read More

On 02-07-2008
Coming Wave of Regulation and the Risk to the Dollar
Over the past several months it has become clear that there is a cauldron of regulation brewing in Washington. The bursting of the subprime bubble and dislocation in the financial sector has brough... Read More

On 02-07-2008
Week Ahead In US Financial Markets (July 7-July 11 2008)
Financial Markets Summary For The Week of July 7-July 11 The week of July 7-11 will see a light week of data on the calendar that will feature a speech by Fed Chair Ben Bern... Read More

On 29-06-2008
Tequila Sunrise: Fuel Subsidies In Mexico Stimulate Black Market Activity In The US
Along the frontier between Southern California and Baja California it has always been a tradition for consumers to engage in a bit of arbitrage due to the temporary differences in prices for basic ... Read More

On 20-06-2008
US Current Account - Still A Drag On The Dollar
Lost amidst recent data on inflation, the rise in oil prices, a deepening crisis in the housing market and the uncanny ability of Goldman-Sachs to outperform market expectations was the deteriorati... Read More

On 17-06-2008
Europe’s Ivory Tower Politics
Just because we have been favoring the euro over the U.S. dollar in recent years doesn’t mean we believe everything is perfect in Europe. The rejection of Irish voters of the latest attempt b... Read More

On 15-06-2008
The Hawkish Illusion: Calling Bernanke’s Bluff
Over the past fortnight Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has engaged in “open mouth operations” to shape market expectations regarding future monetary policy out of the US Federal Reserve. Mr.... Read More

On 10-06-2008
Bernanke Jeopardizes Dollar
The road to hell is paved with good intentions’ is a proverb coined centuries ago, but today’s Federal Reserve (Fed) should take note when it does its own coining. Fed Chairman Ben Bern... Read More

On 06-06-2008
Inflation One-Year Ahead - A Look at the Inflation and the Consumer Price Index
By Joseph Brusuelas (Chief Economist)The recent rise in inflation has not yet been properly captured by the variety of inflation indexes used by the market to assess the pricing environment.... Read More

On 02-06-2008
Purple Haze
With the economy caught somewhere in the purple haze between recession and anemic growth, many market prognosticators have been making the case that the worst is behind us. With respect to t... Read More

On 26-05-2008
Merk Market Outlook:
The past two quarters have seen anemic 0.6% rates of growth and we expect that personal consumption for the advance Q1’08 growth report will advance 1.0%, which would be the weakest three mon... Read More

On 30-04-2008
Federal Reserve may Want Inflation
We are now importing inflation. This does not only apply to the cost of commodities, such as oil, but also to consumer goods imported from Asia. This is a newer trend as, in our analysis, Asia had ... Read More

On 25-03-2008
What’s Up with Asian Currencies?
Axel Merk, Mar 25, 2008With the U.S. dollar reaching new lows versus hard currencies, many are waiting for Asian currencies to catch up. Why hasn’t this happened, and ... Read More

On 27-02-2008
Ambac Bailout May Cause Crisis
A consortium of banks is considering injecting $3 billion dollars into Ambac, the mono-line insurer that relies on its AAA rating to insure, amongst others, municipal bonds and CDOs (collateralized... Read More

On 18-12-2007
Leadership Emerges To Resolve Subprime Crisis
True leadership may have finally emerged to resolve the subprime crisis, although it was difficult to spot during a tumultuous week at the Federal Reserve (Fed). On Tuesday, December 11, 2007, the ... Read More

On 12-12-2007
Hard and Asian Currencies in 2008: U.S. dollar bounce may be elusive
Axel Merk, December 12, 2007As pundits on Wall Street want to hop on the next trade, they pronounce the U.S. dollar is due for a bounce. In favor of a bounce speaks that popular media cover ... Read More

On 22-09-2007
The Economy In Denial: Fallout from the Bursting Housing Bubble
Every day, another economist claims that the impact of the slowdown in housing on the economy is overrated; a few months ago, many still disputed there even was a housing bubble. There has been a h... Read More

On 06-09-2007
If you want a Subprime Bailout, do it Properly!
The administration’s plan to bail out homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) may make them slaves of their homes. We propose an alternative that we believe better serves both homeow... Read More

On 25-06-2007
Banks Fight to Postpone Day of Reckoning
The U.S. trade deficit with the rest of the world leapfrogged in recent days: aside from goods and services, we are now importing “consensus based crisis management” from Japan. Out of ... Read More

On 18-05-2007
Strong dollar in U.S. interest
It seems that in order to qualify for the job, U.S. Treasury Secretaries must be able to recite ‘A strong dollar is in the interest of the United States’ anytime and anywhere. Robert Ru... Read More

On 30-04-2007
Ron Paul Not a Myth
We published an analysis on “Dollar Myths” in which we criticized spending habits in Washington:"Interestingly, nobody seemed to focus on the fact that there is an unconvent... Read More

On 26-04-2007
Dollar Myths
Without shying away from controversy, we do away with a number of myths of why the dollar ought to move up or down.Myth I: The dollar is safe because the U.S. has ample assets... Read More

On 29-03-2007
Fed Jeopardizes Dollar as it Neglects its Mandate
The U.S. dollar collapsed to two-year lows against the euro as the Federal Reserve (Fed) takes its focus away from fighting inflation. The Fed has a dual mandate: price stability as well as full em... Read More

On 07-02-2007
How the Fed Lost Control of Money
The world is awash in money. This money has flown into all asset classes, from stocks to bonds, from real estate to commodities. In a world priced for perfection, should we enjoy the boom or prepar... Read More

On 02-02-2007
Bernanke the Dove
In his recent testimony to Congress, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Ben Bernanke painted a rosy picture of the U.S. economy. If the Fed were satisfied with the economy, it could afford to be blunt ... Read More

On 15-11-2006
A Lower Trade Deficit Unlikely to Save the Dollar
America’s massive trade deficit exerts pressure on the US dollar as currency is shoveled abroad in return for goods and services. As the economy is slowing down and possibly sliding into rece... Read More

On 07-11-2006
The Dollar may fall after the election
Making short-term predictions about the dollar is notoriously difficult. So why do we say the dollar may fall after the election? Once we know what the future composition of Congress will be, the m... Read More

On 09-10-2006
Bernanke Passes The Buck
In a speech at the Economics Club in Washington, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Ben Bernanke warned America to save more and spend less to preserve our standard of living for the long-term. The cor... Read More

On 22-09-2006
The Economy In Denial: Fallout from the Bursting Housing Bubble
Every day, another economist claims that the impact of the slowdown in housing on the economy is overrated; a few months ago, many still disputed there even was a housing bubble. There has been a h... Read More

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