IntegrityFX Daily Intermarket Outlook

Crude oil has finished a head and shoulders pattern today, which began last week. Combined with oil closing below $70 today, it looks as though oil will make a move lower tomorrow. Oil, which is of course negatively correlated to oil, has plenty of room to make a move upward. Gold, as well is ready for a fall tomorrow, as it once again was rejected at the $950 mark today. The S&P 500 hit resistance today at 930 which is the 61.8 in the Fibonacci retracement drawn on the highs from 6/11 to the lows at 6/23.

In fundamental news, tomorrow brings US unemployment data. Most likely this will be a non market moving event, unless it comes out largely out of expectations, which would be 10% or more. Also of note is the interest rate statement out of the ECB, they won’t be cutting so just be aware of their statement, as Trichet tends to move markets. Also be aware that tomorrow is the last trading day of the week for US markets, and expect low volume in trading.

Daily Currency Pair Analysis

USDCAD: Oil is ready to make a move downward, so look to buy USDCAD to benefit from a weakening of the CAD

Potential Trade: USDCAD buy
Optimal Entry: 1.1450
Stop: below 1.1410
Target: 1.1575

By David Leal, Market Analyst