Week in Review Part III: Foreign Affairs

Iran: President Obama directly accused Iran of “dangerous and reckless behavior” in pursuing a plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States, Adel al-Jubeir, a well-known figure among the Washington diplomatic set and a leading adviser to the Saudi royal family (as well as a former boyfriend of then NBC news reporter Campbell Brown).

Officials were initially skeptical of the plan until they learned of a $100,000 payment to the alleged plotters that was linked back to Iran’s Quds Force, the foreign operations wing of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. There is, however, no evidence, as yet, that Ayatollah Khamenei or Iranian President Ahmadinejad knew of the conspiracy, but it’s hard to believe Khamenei hadn’t been briefed.

Al-Jubeir was to have been killed at a Washington restaurant, the assassination carried out by hit men from a Mexican drug cartel who were to be paid $1.5 million. Other plots included bombings of embassies both here and abroad.
Editorial / New York Post

“The Obama administration may finally be coming to terms with the Iranian threat.

“Certainly, President Obama is sounding tougher this week regarding Tehran than he did during his first year in office.

“Yesterday, he vowed to hold Iran ‘accountable’ for its ‘reckless behavior.’ And he refused to ‘take any options off the table in terms of how we operate with Iran.’….

“To his credit, the president insisted on ‘accountability with respect to anybody in the Iranian government engaging in this kind of activity.’

“Nor did he downplay Iran’s bloody record. The latest plot, he said, ‘is part of a pattern of dangerous and reckless behavior by the Iranian government’ – calling it ‘just one example of a series of steps that they’ve taken to create violence.’

“No kidding, there: Most of the world has been painfully aware of Tehran’s mischief – ever since its 1979 revolution.

“It’s been a chief sponsor of global terror, has murdered U.S. soldiers (either directly or through proxies) in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon and elsewhere and seeks Israel’s complete annihilation.
“Oh, yeah: And it’s busily building nukes….

“For now, Obama says he’ll seek ‘the toughest sanctions’ against Iran and step up worldwide efforts to see that it ‘pays a price for this kind of behavior.’

“A State Department aide yesterday said U.S. officials ‘have had direct contact with Iran’ in the wake of the new disclosures, despite the lack of formal relations between Washington and Tehran. Hmm…

“Keeping fully in mind that words can be cheap, we find this all encouraging news.

“For Obama & Co., the proof will be in the follow-through. America’s response – or lack thereof – will have profound consequences…throughout the world.”
Editorial / Washington Post

“The Obama administration’s charge that senior Iranian officials plotted to kill the Saudi ambassador in Washington was greeted with a considerable amount of skepticism in some quarters of Washington and the Middle East. Iran, argued some pundits, was unlikely to have undertaken such a brazen attack; it had little to gain by killing the ambassador; and, anyway, its clandestine operations were known to be far more skilled than the seemingly bumbling attempt to contract the assassination to a Mexican drug cartel.

“Perhaps the doubters are right, and it is certainly prudent to reserve final judgment until all the facts of the case are known. But the FBI’s charging documents outline some substantial evidence, including the transfer of $100,000 to a bank account that the suspect arrested in the case, Mansour Arbabsiar, believed belonged to a Mexican cartel member. The FBI also recorded phone conversations between Mr. Arbabsiar and a man in Tehran he identified as an operative of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard….

“The Obama administration can hardly be suspected of manufacturing this story to seek out a confrontation with Iran. In fact, its evident eagerness to curtail U.S. military operations abroad and cut the defense budget may have encouraged some in Tehran to believe that an attack on U.S. soil would not risk a serious response. That’s one reason why it’s important that U.S. countermeasures go well beyond the small extensions of sanctions announced Tuesday. The administration is rightly seeking to mobilize new multilateral action against Iran, including through the United Nations. But there are steps that the United States and close allies can take, such as directly sanctioning Iran’s central bank – a measure that already has considerable support in Congress.

“The alleged plot against the ambassador may reflect a splintering of the Iranian regime that allows radical factions to act more autonomously….Whatever the cause, the scheme’s discovery should serve as a warning of the escalating threat posed by Iran – and the need to act more forcefully against it.”
Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Had it succeeded, this would have constituted an act of terror by the Islamic Republic of Iran on U.S. soil, and arguably an act of war. To those, notably an emerging isolationist wing in the Republican party, who’ve argued lately that the U.S. should pull its efforts back from a waning international terrorist threat to focus on domestic concerns, this event is a wake-up call….

“The good news in yesterday’s announcement, and in earlier successes, is that U.S. law-enforcement and intelligence appear to have taken the lessons of 9/11 to heart. They got serious about terror and are able to thwart potential disasters such as this, though we wonder how many others are in train.

“Less reassuring is the lapsed seriousness by the West’s political leadership about Iran’s threat. The U.S. and its allies have imposed sanction regimes on Iran, but they have allowed legalistic definitions to free Iranian officials with ties to its nuclearization program to flout travel bans and such.

“Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrives annually to rant from a podium at the United Nations on the East River. Iran is about much more than these antic rants, and its resources are vastly greater than al Qaeda’s. It sees itself as at war with the U.S., Europe, Israel and now obviously Saudi Arabia. As obvious, it sees itself as immune to effective retaliation against its repeated, or planned, offensives. It’s past time for U.S. policy toward Iran to reflect the reality of what it is dealing with.”

One should assume a military strike of some kind is now in the cards, though not soon. The administration wants a forthcoming International Atomic Energy Agency assessment on Iran’s nuclear program to provide more specifics on Tehran’s suspected efforts to produce a nuclear-tipped missile. I think the White House will seek further proof on the weapons front before taking action of any kind.

But the last thing I’d want, if I were President Obama, would be for Iran to test a nuclear device after September of next year, with the campaign in the final stretch, thus exposing Obama to all kinds of charges of failing to take the threat seriously. Thus, perhaps next spring is the time to launch a strike. I would also suspect Iran will be given fair warning, though not told what the actual target is. I’ll game this out further over the coming weeks, including my comments years ago concerning Iran’s intentions on building bases of operations in Latin America, which were essentially borne out by the just announced plot.

Lastly, interesting item that Iran is reportedly cutting its financial support to Hizbullah, according to a Kuwaiti newspaper. The sources say Iran provides Hizbullah with $350 million annually, funds earmarked for members’ salaries, families of martyrs and projects in Beirut’s southern suburbs and the Bekaa Valley. Iran’s suffering economy is largely to blame. This doesn’t mean militarily support is cut off, however.

Iraq: What a frustrating stretch for the Obama administration as Iraq has continued to support President Assad of Syria, hosting official visits from Damascus and signing business pacts. While it appears the dollar aid is minimal, it is the moral support that is important to Assad’s survival. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has spoken out against regime change. “We believe that Syria will be able to overcome its crisis through reforms,” the same line adopted by Iranian President Ahmadinejad.

Both Maliki and Ahmadinejad have criticized Assad’s brutality, but they have not called for his ouster, nor are they accepting Syrian refugees. The Syrian opposition gets zero recognition. Meanwhile, cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has publicly called Assad his “brother.”

Then you have the issue of U.S. military trainers staying beyond the 2011 withdrawal date. 44,000 U.S. troops are scheduled to leave end of the year and initially Iraq requested 3,000 remain behind to continue to train the Iraqi security forces and army. But now Maliki says, “We do not need such a large number” in saying talks will be concluded by mid-November.

The sticking point, aside from Maliki being pulled to the side by Sadr, who is telling him no troops get to stay, is the issue of immunity. Washington insists U.S. troops be granted immunity from prosecution if they commit crimes. A majority in the Iraqi parliament are adamantly against it. One lawmaker told the Washington Post:

“Americans misuse immunity. They’ve had it for eight years. They made a lot of violations…Sometimes they killed people, attacked people, captured people, and no one could tell them anything. Iraq doesn’t want a repeat of that.”

This is where something like Abu Ghraib hurts U.S. efforts immensely. It will be interesting to see what the final solution is as the Pentagon works on an alternative, more private contractors.

Separately, while violence is certainly down over the pace of 2006-07, insurgents are still capable of widespread attacks, such as Wednesday’s suicide and car bombings that resulted in at least 25 deaths in Baghdad.

Egypt: Some two dozen Coptic Christians were killed by Egyptian security forces on Sunday night which most believe marks a worrisome turn in the revolution, not that there wasn’t already reason to worry with the postponement of presidential elections until well into 2012. Just eight months after the removal of President Hosni Mubarak, it’s open season on the Christian minority. The public also now understands once and for all that the ruling military council is nothing but a gang of thugs.

A political laeder, Ayman Nour, told journalists, “The credit that the military received from the people in Tahrir Square just ran out yesterday. There is no partnership between us and the council now that the blood of our brothers stands between us.”

The military failed to explain its actions, only issuing an apology for “unfortunate events” that “transformed peaceful protests to bloody ones.” Expressing “deepest condolences to the families of the victims,” the military reiterated its determination to refuse “attempts to cause a rift between the armed forces and the Egyptian people.” [David D. Kirkpatrick / New York Times]

I’ve written on many occasions that it has been war on Christians throughout the Middle East. There are but a few pockets remaining in Iraq, which at one time had a healthy Christian segment; Christians are not welcome in Iran; and now Christians are being killed in Egypt.
Bret Stephens / Wall Street Journal

“What is true is that Egypt is in the early stages of Thomas Hobbes’ bellum omnium contra omnes, the war of all against all….(Gone) is the Arab Spring narrative of tech-savvy, pro-democracy protesters standing tall and proud against the dinosaur Mubarak regime. Gone even is the narrative of the liberal secularists versus the Muslim Brotherhood.

“Instead, picture Egypt as a vacant lot in which a dozen or so combustible elements – a leaking oil can here; some dry wood over there; patches of dessicated grass – sit in varying degrees of proximity to one another, while the boys who play in the lot light cigarettes. Chances are something will catch fire. Chances are that if something does, all of it will….

“Egypt today is in need of a savior in the mold of Muhammad Ali Pasha, its first great modernizer. But the nearer historical precedent is an opportunistic officer in the mold of Gamal Abdel Nasser – or a religious messianist like Iran’s Ayatollah Khomeini. Either possibility would be a calamity for the Middle East, and for the United States. But Egyptians will think otherwise when confronted by the specter of anarchy. Just ask Thomas Hobbes.”

Syria: The government warned the international community not to recognize a new opposition council, threatening “tough measures” against any country that did so, though this is mostly bluster. Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem did say that countries that do not protect Syrian missions will have their embassies treated in the same way.

The Assad regime is definitely concerned, however, that the new Syrian National Council does begin to gain recognition, a la Libya’s rebels in the early days of the revolution there.

Meanwhile, at least another 19 were killed in two towns as the U.N. says the death toll nears 3,000 since the protests started in March. Virtually all foreign media has been banned from Syria.

And this just in…Syria has been sending troops across the border with Lebanon, in the Bekaa Valley, under the pretense of stopping the flow of weapons into Syria that are destined for the opposition. In one case last week, Syrian tanks penetrated four miles into Lebanon and a farmer was killed. What a bunch of bastards. Assad needs to be assassinated, and don’t give me this, ‘Well what follows could be worse.’ Let Turkey take the country over. “Here, Erdogan. Make peace with Israel and Syria is yours.” [The pressure on Iran would also then be immense. The people could very well topple the regime knowing the West, and NATO, is at their doorstep.]

Israel: Hamas and the Israeli government have engineered a prisoner swap whereby Israel is releasing 1,027 prisoners (beginning with 450 within days) while Israel gets Sgt. Gilad Schalit. Nice percentages. 300 of the Palestinians being released had received life sentences, though the 40 most dangerous will be deported to other countries such as Turkey. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he got “the best deal we could get” given the turmoil in the region. Schalit could come home on Tuesday. In the first poll, by a 69-26 margin, Israelis support the move, but 62% believe Israel’s security situation will worsen.

Afghanistan: According to a U.N. report, “systematic torture” is the order of the day during interrogations by Afghan intelligence and police officials. The report doesn’t determine if U.S. officials are aware of the abuses, even as American and other Western backers provide the funding and training for the Afghans running detention centers.

Ukraine: In a move that has outraged the West, and Russia, former Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko was sentenced Tuesday to seven years in prison (and fined $188 million) for exceeding her authority in brokering a gas contract with Russia in 2009, ending a dispute that had left parts of Europe freezing in the dead of winter. President Viktor Yanukovych has sought to renegotiate the deal, arguing Ukraine’s Naftogaz was paying too high a price to Gazprom for Russian gas.

[Tymoshenko’s daughter believes her mother will be released shortly, even as Ukraine’s intelligence service opened a new criminal case against Tymoshenko, less than 48 hours after her sentencing. This time the charge involves the reassigning of $405 million in debt owed by a private energy company she headed in the 1990s to Ukraine’s federal budget.]

White House spokesman Jay Carney said: “The charges against Mrs. Tymoshenko and the conduct of her trial, as well as the prosecution of other opposition leaders and members of the preceding government, have raised serious concerns about the government of Ukraine’s commitment to democracy and rule of law.”

For his part, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin warned that efforts to tear up the 2009 contract would hurt ties between the two countries. European Union officials say Ukraine’s move toward EU membership may have just come to a grinding halt.

Yanukovych is to meet Russian President Medvedev on Oct. 18 to discuss the gas agreement. Yanukovych will say the court decision proves the contract is null and void.

Tymoshenko claims Yanukovych, who lost in 2004 to Viktor Yushchenko when Tymoshenko was a leader in the Orange Revolution, is trying to silence the opposition ahead of parliamentary elections next year.
Editorial / London Times

“Ukraine marked 20 years of independence this summer. Yet the jailing this week of Yuliya Tymoshenko, the former Prime Minister, showed that what was once widely regarded as the most democratic of the former Soviet republics has not, after all, moved far from a model of arbitrary arrest and political show trials.

“The outcome might be counted a farce but for the costs to Mrs. Ymoshenko and the damage to Ukraine’s diplomatic reputation. If Ukraine retains hope of an eventual accession to the EU, it must operate according to European standards of justice and due process. And European policymakers should impose costs on a failure to observe those principles….

“Mr. Yanukovych is a small-minded mediocrity of the type that used to serve as compliant heads of government in Soviet satellite states. Yet his obduracy and repression appear to worry even his former allies in Russia. Though Vladimir Putin seeks to create a new Eurasian union of former Soviet republics, he too has voiced opposition to Mrs. Tymoshenko’s treatment. EU governments should be unrestrained in their outrage.”

Russia: Prime Minister Putin traveled to China for a two-day visit and he was able to announce a series of energy deals between the two. Both Putin and Chinese President Hu Jintao took the opportunity to slam the United States, specifically the U.S. dollar, the dominance of which Putin called “parasitic.”

And it was last week I wrote of actress Hilary Swank’s appearance at Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov’s birthday, “someone please explain to me why U.S. film star Hilary Swank was there?!” It wasn’t until five days later, Wed. p.m./Thurs. a.m., that the major U.S. networks picked up on what I told you, including Thursday’s “Today” program. I’ve told you Kadyrov is one of the truly awful people on the planet for years. On Wednesday, Human Rights Watch (also after your editor) condemned the appearance of Swank and fellow actor Jean Claude Van Damme, saying in a statement:

“Ramzan Kadyrov is linked to a grim record of abuse. When stars get paid to turn up to party with (Kadyrov), it trivializes the suffering of countless victims of human rights abuses.”

Swank apologized on Wednesday night, issuing a statement saying:

“I deeply regret attending this event. If I had a full understanding of what this event was apparently intended to be, I would have never gone.”

What a freakin’ idiot! Yoh, Hilary. Read a damn newspaper now and then, would ya? You would have known this guy is a son of Satan.

China: October 10, 1911, marked the start of the uprising against the Qing dynasty, led by Dr. Sun Yat-sen, and a revolution that ended 2,000 years of imperial Chinese rule, so both Taiwanese president Ma and Chinese President Hu marked the anniversary; with Ma urging China’s government to pursue democracy and respect his island’s self-governance, while Hu made an appeal in Beijing for both sides to move beyond the history that divides them (Taiwan and China split in 1949 amid a civil war) and work towards reunification. Most Taiwanese are wary of such calls, especially when they are being targeted by at least 1,000 missiles these days.

The problem is Taiwan’s presidential election in January. President Ma has been responsible for great strides in Taiwan-Chinese relations, primarily on the economic front, but some on Taiwan believe he is going too far so as the campaign heats up, he is seeking to reassure his people he can still be tough, but the rhetoric could backfire.

For its part, for years now, Beijing has been awaiting the result of the election. If Ma wins another term, relations should continue to improve. Should the opponent win, however, all hell could break loose.

Separately, I posted a Chinese state editorial on my “Hot Spots” link concerning the potential for military conflict in the South China Sea over energy and mineral rights, but this week China and Vietnam, the two most likely to go to war in this matter (secondarily the Philippines), announced agreement on a series of steps designed to reduce tensions. Among other things a hot line was established between the two.

Thailand: The country floods during monsoon season all the time, except what is going on today is the worst flooding in decades as the megalopolis of Bangkok itself is now threatened for the first time in recent memory. As I go to post, suburbs are being inundated and it’s a guess as to whether the floodgates will operate properly. The Flood Relief Center didn’t help matters when it erroneously reported on Thursday that the water had broken through, so the government called for an urgent evacuation, only to learn the gates had held. Over 280 have been killed thus far and as I mentioned the other day, some key crops, such as rice, have been severely impacted.

Burma: The president granted amnesty to more than 6,300 prisoners in what is a highly significant step in a series of reforms undertaken by the newly elected government (you’ll recall there were cries of ‘foul’ in this one). It’s not known how many of the nation’s 2,000 political prisoners would be included in the release.

France: Martine Aubry and Francois Hollande are squaring off on Sunday in the second round of Socialist Party voting to determine the challenger to President Sarkozy in next spring’s election. Hollande won the first round 39-30. The Socialists last won with Francois Mitterand in 1988.

Britain: There is a bizarre story here, as there always seem to be when it comes to British politics, but Defense Secretary Liam Fox just resigned under fire for allowing a friend of his, Adam Werrity, access to the Ministry of Defense 14 times in 16 months. Werrity had been handing out two different business cards bearing the House of Commons crest, in both cases claiming a connection to Fox as an employee or adviser when both claims were false. The main concern is over an intelligence breach. Werrity was best man at Fox’s wedding. Prime Minister Cameron demanded a report on Monday but Fox saved the prime minister further embarrassment. The investigation continues.

Mexico: So many people are being killed here in the drug war, I can’t keep up. 30 here, 35 bodies there…

Central America: …but a U.N. study says the highest murder rates are in Honduras and El Salvador. Honduras had 6,200 killings out of a population of 7.7 million (roughly the population of New York City, which had about 500 homicides by comparison…and peaked in the crack years at 2,100). El Salvador, with a population of 6.1 million had 4,000 homicides.

Honduras’ homicide rate of 82 per 100,000 people compares to the United States’ 5 per 100,000. So I just crossed Honduras off my bucket list.

Central African Republic: Friday night I watched NBC Nightly News and anchor Brian Williams had one of his made up leads, “Later…the story of Michelle Obama’s dress that has the world buzzing,” or something to that effect. So as is his wont, Williams totally lies that the world cares about a freakin’ dress the First Lady wore at a State Dinner for South Korea’s leader (which I’m glad was held, in all sincerity…South Korea being a great and important ally).

Anyway, afterwards I’m skimming through some headlines before I begin to proof this column (which takes all Friday night, by the way) and I see this headline from the AP:
“Obama sending troops to aid Africa anti-insurgency”

Wha?! On Friday, Obama, with little consultation from Congress, it would seem, beforehand, sent the first of eventually 100 U.S. troops to Uganda, with others to go to the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. They will act as fully combat ready advisers in the long-running battle against the Lord’s Resistance Army, the notorious rebel group headed by Joseph Kony. I mean these guys are some of the worst actors in the history of the world so I have no problem that Obama has taken this step.

It’s just that this is a big story! The U.S. seldom acts in this region in this fashion, especially since our history in Somalia. [I’m not counting the basing of troops in places like Djibouti where the mission is to hunt down al-Qaeda.]
So earth to Brian Williams. Do a real news program, will ya? Save Michelle’s dress for “Extra!”

Otherwise…Go U.S.A. Kill Kony!

New Zealand: Potential environmental disaster here as a container ship ran aground 100 miles southeast of Auckland. The ship is carrying 1,700 metric tons of fuel oil and potentially dangerous chemicals. The crew had to abandon ship due to bad weather and massive waves. A significant amount of oil has leaked as crews now try to siphon it out. Pristine beaches in the country are now being fouled. The poor residents. They are trying to clean it up themselves while the government urges them to leave it to professionals.