POLL-ECB to hold rates at 1% deep into 2010, staff fcast to rise

* For full data see

* ECB set to leave rates on hold at 1.0 percent on Dec 3

* ECB rates not seen raising rates until Q4 2010

* ECB seen revising up growth forecasts for 2009, 2010

* Majority see ECB ending full refi allotment by end H1 2010

By Jonathan Cable

LONDON, Nov 25 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank will not budge on interest rates when it meets next week and it will be near the end of 2010 before it raises them, despite brightening their growth outlook, a Reuters poll found.

All 80 economists in a poll before the ECB meets on Dec. 3 said the central bank would leave rates at a record low of 1.0 percent, with only a handful seeing any change before the second half of next year.

"It is still too early to talk about rate rises," said Colin Ellis at Daiwa SMBC, who sees rates on hold until at least next July.

Median forecasts show rates on hold until the final quarter of 2010 when they will rise to 1.5 percent.

This compares to a poll taken two weeks ago, which saw the first rise in the third quarter, to 1.25 percent, but still ending the year at 1.5 percent.

The ECB has been battling to pull the 16-nation bloc out of a deep recession and figures released earlier this month showed its loose monetary policy had paid off with a return to growth in the third quarter of 0.4 percent after five consecutive quarters of shrinking output.

As part of its campaign the central bank has slashed interest rates, purchased covered bonds on the open market and offered unlimited funds for banks for up to a year at a fixed rock-bottom rate.

But that programme of offering unlimited funds may soon be coming to an end. A separate poll on Tuesday of euro zone money market traders found 20 of 24 saying December's 12-month auction would be the last one-year operation.

"The ECB knows that, having taken such an expansionary stance, it cannot wait too long to start tightening the reins again. If it did, it could actually be paving the way for the next bubble," said Michael Schubert at Commerzbank.

The majority of 51 economists said the central bank would end its policy of full allotment in its refinancing operations in the first half of next year as it begins to implement an exit strategy.

ECB Governing Council Member George Provopoulos said on Tuesday the central bank would make "final decisions" about withdrawing the emergency support for the economy when it meets next week.

PREDICTIONS BRIGHTEN

The European Central Bank is set to update markets on its predictions for inflation and growth when it meets next week.

The poll found 64 of 65 economists predicting 2010 growth forecasts would be upgraded, with just one saying they would be unchanged.

"The ECB in their last forecasts were expecting just 0.2 percent growth (in 2010) and this is a really pessimistic forecast ... so I think that will be revised up and possibly by a meaningful amount," said Daniele Antonucci at Morgan Stanley.

Forecasters were a little more divided over the outlook for inflation, with 27 saying 2010 numbers would be revised up, 3 revised down and 33 saying the would be left unchanged.

A Reuters poll earlier this month predicted the bloc's economy would grow by 1.1 percent next year, with inflation at 1.2 percent -- well below the central bank's 2.0 percent target ceiling.

Data released on Monday showed the euro zone's dominant service sector grew at its fastest pace in two years last month while figures on Tuesday showed industrial new orders rose almost twice as much as expected in September. (Polling by Bangalore Polling Unit; Editing by Andy Bruce) ((jonathan.cable@thomsonreuters.com; +44 20 7542 4688: Reuters messaging: rm://jonathan.cable.reuters.com@reuters.net))