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METALS-Copper slips as jobs data stokes economy worries

2009-07-03 16:57:59 GMT (Reuters)
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* U.S. June jobs data disappoints

* Analysts see further downward pressure for copper

* Copper, aluminium stocks rise

(Adds closing prices)

By Humeyra Pamuk and Maytaal Angel

LONDON, July 3 (Reuters) - Copper slipped on Friday as U.S. jobs data fuelled worries about the health of the global economy and investors questioned the strength of demand from China, the world's largest copper consumer.

Copper for three months delivery on the London Metal Exchange closed at $5,000 a tonne, versus Thursday's close of $5,035 a tonne. The metal touched a two-week high earlier this week.

"The only real demand we're getting is coming out of China, they've been buying metals but its all going into stocks, there's no physical offtake yet," said Robert Montefusco, a trader at Sucden Financial.

He added that weak U.S. employment data knocked hopes of an imminent economic recovery and that copper could turn lower over the seasonally quiet third quarter, especially as the Chinese stockpiling drive wanes.

The United States lost more jobs in June than expected, while the unemployment rate hit 9.5 percent, the highest in nearly 26 years.

"The market may well reassess the green shoots story given the United States is still losing a lot of jobs," said Jesper Dannesboe, senior commodity strategist at Societe Generale.

Copper trimmed some of its earlier losses in a market that was quiet due to a U.S. holiday. With the economy sending mixed signals, analysts say prices are exposed on the downside.

On Friday, surveys showed signs of a recovery in the euro zone's dominant services economy took a backwards step in June but business optimism hit a near two-year high.

INVENTORIES RISE

Copper has risen 60 percent this year, mostly due to Chinese buying, as Beijing took advantage of low prices to build state reserves and its stimulus plan boosted demand for the metal.

However, higher prices mean Chinese interest is fading.

Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 7 percent from a week ago while LME stocks increased by 4,050 tonnes on the day to 268,275 tonnes, having fallen more than 280,000 tonnes since end-February.

"We think that inventory seasonality could be just the trigger to lower prices. We also note that cancelled warrants have tumbled ... and that for now, the Chinese SRB (State Reserves Bureau) is thought to have completed its buying of copper," said Nick Moore, head of commodity strategy at RBS Global Banking and Markets.

LME aluminium inventories rose 3,400 tonnes, to above 4.4 million tonnes.

Aluminium closed at $1,601 a tonne from $1,640. The metal, used in transport and packaging, was still within range of its six-month high of $1,701 a tonne, hit in early June.

Traders see the reason as a shortage in near term supplies of aluminium partly because companies with metal are using it as collateral to release cash tied up in stock.

Battery material lead closed at $1,710 a tonne from $1,700, while zinc closed at $1,565 a tonne from $1,560.

Latest data showed LME zinc stocks fell 525 tonnes on the day to 352,600 tonnes, but in Shanghai, stocks rose by 20,000 tonnes from last week's levels.

Barclays Capital said in a note the stock rise may signal production restarts in China and the end of stockpiling.

"That said, we still have a bullish bias on zinc on a 6-12 month view, especially given the prospect of greater pace in demand recovery in both China and the OECD," it added.

Elsewhere, steel-making ingredient nickel was last bid at $16,205 a tonne from $16,450, while tin was last bid at $14,350 a tonne from $14,300.

For graphics; http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/079/GLB_ALISTK0307.jpg

http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/079/GLB_CPRSTK0307.jpg

http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/079/GLB_ZNCSTK0307.jpg (Additional reporting by Rujun Chen in Shanghai; Editing by Anthony Barker)

 
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