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UDPATE 2-Novartis hits 6-yr low after says dollar to weigh

2009-02-25 09:54:36 GMT (Reuters)
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* Analyst says statement is almost a profit warning

* Shares fall 3 percent to 6-year low

* Other factors will also hit Q1

(Adds more comment, details)

By Sam Cage

ZURICH, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Novartis AG shares dipped to a 6-year low on Wednesday after the drug maker said first-quarter results would be hit by the stronger dollar, which analysts said could amount to a profit warning.

In a statement issued late on Tuesday the Swiss group said its operating and net income for the first quarter were expected to be negatively impacted by 8-10 percentage points due to adverse currency movements.

Its fourth-quarter 2008 results were hit by the higher U.S. dollar, the currency in which Novartis reports, and the drugmaker said at the time it expected an "increasingly challenging environment".

"It is, in effect, almost a form of profit warning from the Basel company for the first quarter," Wegelin analysts said in a note on Wednesday.

Novartis shares were down 3.3 percent to 45.46 Swiss francs by 0922 GMT, a 6-year low and compared with a 1.3 percent drop in the European health care index. Swiss rival Roche's stock fell 2.8 percent to 134 francs, having hit a 4-year low.

Pharmaceutical makers like Novartis have proven relatively resilient in the economic downturn as healthcare is usually one of the last areas where consumers cut back spending.

But the company is struggling against not only the stronger U.S. currency but also the looming loss of patent protection for its top-selling Diovan blood pressure drug and tougher paths to markets for new products.

Its shares had lost 11 percent so far in 2009 before Wednesday's session, a sharper drop than the wider European sector.

"We see consensus reducing full-year '09 estimates by roughly 2 percent in U.S. dollar terms. In Swiss francs we see no major impact to Novartis earnings," said Vontobel analyst Andrew Weiss.

Novartis said its underlying business growth so far in 2009 has been in line with its previous expectations for net sales growth at a mid-single-digit rate in local currencies.

The group also said other factors -- including the lack of exceptional gains that boosted the year-ago period and higher development, marketing and sales investments in the drugs unit -- would weigh on first quarter results. (Editing by David Cowell)

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