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Currency Pair Overview: Majors Pairs Treading Water Overnight
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Majors Pairs Treading Water Overnight Overall, the major pairs were trading in channels during the overnight session. The only pair daring to make a move at the start of the Asian session was the aussie which started to strengthen as the Australian S&P/ASX gained 11 points or 0.25 percent. The Japanese trade balance was released showing that exports fell at a slower pace in the previous 12 months to October. The euro (Eur/Usd 1.4963) has been trading near the highs of the past few days during the early part of the US session. The euro has not been able to break above the 1.5000 area over the past several days. Lately, the pair has made a series of higher lows suggesting that momentum is building for a break to the long side. The pound (Gbp/Usd 1.6592) is trading below the 20 day moving average at 1.6613, finding that area to be a resistance point. More resistance will be seen at the 1.6650, and 1.6690 areas while support has been noticed at 1.6480 and 1.6500. The aussie (Aud/Usd 0.9232) is breaking higher during the overnight session. The pair has risen over 40 pips and is testing the S1 swing area near 0.9255 after breaking above the 20 day moving average at 0.9200. The cad (Usd/Cad 1.0580) was unable to break above the 20 and 50 day moving average located above in the 1.0615 area. The pair started the new trading day below the neutral swing point which adds another level of resistance. Support will be seen at 1.0540. The swissy (Usd/Chf 1.0089) is staying near the lows of the past few days, finding strong resistance near the 20 day moving average at 1.0142 and the 50 day moving average at 1.0203. Meanwhile, support is being seen at 1.0065 and at 1.0030. The yen (Usd/Jpy 88.48) is trading just off the lows after spending most of the previous day in a slow steady decline. The yen found support at 88.40 but now the most immediate resistance is at the previous support area of 88.70. Momentum: S&P futures went into long mode in the near-term on Nov 13th and have easily held that trend, and that has allowed the tests of 4 hour chart support to be bought. There is a tight sideways channel forming and that is allowing the move from overbought to oversold and back again, to be completed over a 5 day period. It seems to be a meander higher at the moment. Elliott Wave: S&P futures traded significantly higher recently, towards the 1112 resistance area after better than expected economic reads. The equity futures look bullish right now, and are expected to make at least another push into the highs over the mid-term, if the 1082 support area holds.
Momentum: Gold bullion moved into another long momentum cycle on 3rd Nov, and easily held the long break of 1060 that came with it. The pull-backs are getting bought when they hit an oversold 4 hour chart sentiment read, every 4-5 days. The current oscillator reads are as overbought as we have seen in the entire move up from 950.00 to 1160.00. Therefore we will be looking for a reversal to support, and looking to bank existing rather than buy new at these levels. The 1180 and 1200 areas look to be potential reversal points, with 1130 and 1100 momentum and sentiment price points. Elliott Wave: It seems that gold may be targeting the 1200 area, before the Long blue wave V completes a larger, and extended, blue wave 5). Gold values are reflecting U.S. dollar weakness that have held in place over the last few months. Traders with a long dollar bias should wait on resistance to be hit on gold before looking for the Usd to easily trade higher again. As such, the 1200 resistance area could be the key for a reversal short on gold, and long on the dollar.
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