Currency Thoughts: The Weekly View

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Currency Thoughts:

The Weekly View

Currency thoughts this week cover the calendar of scheduled economic data releases next week, that will be important despite significant holiday interruptions in North America and Asia. Central bank policy meetings in Israel, Malaysia, Mexico and Poland are not expected to result in any interest rate changes, but a cut in Hungary appears to be an odds-on bet. 

Minutes from prior FOMC and BOJ meetings will be published, and the Bank of Japan also will release its monthly report.  Yamaguchi of the BOJ and Mersch and Ordonez of the ECB will be speaking publicly, and Fisher, Sentance, Tucker and Posen of the Band of England are scheduled to testify in parliament on Tuesday about inflation and growth prospects. 

The aforementioned holiday closures are in Japan on Monday for Labor Thanksgiving, the United States and Canada on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and a number of Asian Muslim countries on Friday for Hari Raga Haji, which commemorates the conclusion of the annual pilgrimage to Mecca.

Scheduled euro area statistics include preliminary manufacturing and service-sector PMI readings for the whole bloc, Germany and France and their retail PMI scores separately. Investors will also get monthly monetary and credit growth, industrial orders, and economic sentiment for the whole monetary union, German business sentiment, import prices, consumer prices, consumer confidence and revised GDP, as well as French unemployment, business sentiment, and personal consumption of manufactured goods.

Italy announces wages and  both business and consumer sentiment.  Spain and Belgium, which are among the first regional countries to report consumer price inflation every month, will do so, and both the Netherlands and Belgium are slated to report business sentiment.

Britain reports third-quarter investment and revised GDP, mortgage lending, the CBI monthly survey of retailers, and the Nationwide house price index. Sweden announces producer prices, retail sales, consumer confidence, trade data, and GDP growth. Norwegian GDP and manufacturing wages arrive, too.  So too do the Swiss index of leading economic indicators and personal consumption.

As monthend approaches, the flow of Japanese statistics picks up with customs trade, corporate service prices, the Shoko Chukin small business sentiment gauge, labor statistics, consumer prices, retail sales, and household spending all on tap for next week. Selected other Asian data of interest will be consumer prices and industrial production from Singapore, unemployment, foreign orders, GDP and industrial production from Taiwan, Hong Kong trades, and Filipino trades and GDP.

Even the United States, where many market players will be off from Wednesday onward, has quite a lengthy list of releases: existing and new home sales, the Case-Shiller and FHFA house price indices, the Richmond, Chicago and Kansas City Fed indices, revised GDP, both the Conference Board and U. Michigan consumer confidence reports, personal income and spending, durable goods orders, and revised GDP. 

There will also be the usual contingent of weekly stuff like mortgage applications, energy inventories, chain store sales, consumer confidence and jobless insurance claims.

Canada will be releasing retail sales and its quarterly current account.  Besides a central bank policy meeting, Mexico releases retail sales, trade and balance of payments, labor statistics, and GDP.  Peruvian GDP is also due, as is Brazil’s report on the current account.

Australia reports private investment and new motor vehicle sales.  New Zealand announces business sentiment and trade figures.  Turkish industrial output will be released, and so too will South African GDP and consumer prices.

CurrencyThoughts is a stand-alone independent advisory service that integrates all global financial markets and the macroeconomic trends that make them tick.