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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: September 24 - 28

Published 09/23/2012, 07:50 AM
Updated 09/23/2012, 07:50 AM
Investing.com - The U.S. dollar ended the week slightly lower against the yen on Friday, as the effects of the Bank of Japan’s monetary easing waned amid concerns over the outlook for global growth.

USD/JPY hit 79.21 on Wednesday, the pair’s highest since August 22; the pair subsequently consolidated at 78.15 by close of trade on Friday, down 0.21% on the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 77.69, the low of September 11 and resistance at 78.86, Tuesday’s high.

The dollar jumped to a one-month high against the yen on Wednesday after the BoJ eased monetary policy on Wednesday and downgraded its assessment of the global economy, citing a slowdown in global demand.

The BoJ said it would expand its asset purchase and loan program by JPY10 trillion to JPY80 trillion after its two-day policy meeting ended.

The central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.1% in a widely anticipated decision.

Japan’s Finance Minister Jun Azumi welcomed the central bank’s move, saying the measures were bolder than he had expected.

The move came one week after the Federal Reserve announced that it will buy USD40 billion of mortgage-backed securities each month until the labor market improves and pledged to keep interest rates close to record lows until at least the middle of 2015.

But the yen firmed up after data from China on Thursday showed that the country’s manufacturing sector remained in contraction territory for the eleventh consecutive month in September.

Investors remained cautious amid speculation that Spain was moving closer to requesting a full-scale sovereign bailout.

Spain saw borrowing costs fall at an auction of government debt on Thursday, after the European Central Bank pledged earlier this month to buy unlimited amounts of short term government bonds from troubled euro zone members, but only after they request assistance.

However, expectations that Madrid will seek a bailout were dented after Germany’s Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Spain did not need a sovereign bailout on top of the package already agreed for its banks because it was on the right path to regain the confidence of markets.

In the week ahead, investors will continue to eye developments in Spain, while U.S. data on consumer sentiment and spending will be closely watched as investors attempt to gauge the strength of the U.S. economy.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, September 24

The BoJ is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy setting meeting, which contain important insights into current economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

Tuesday, September 25

The U.S. is to publish data on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as industry data on house price inflation.

Wednesday, September 26

The U.S. is to publish official data on new home sales, a leading indicator of the health of the housing sector, as well as government data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, September 27

The U.S. is to publish government data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as a weekly report on unemployment claims and revised data on second quarter economic growth. The country is also to produce industry data on pending homes sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Friday, September 28

Japan is to release a raft of government data, including reports on household spending, inflation, retail sales and industrial production.

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on personal income and spending, as well as data on personal consumption expenditures and an index of business activity in the Chicago area. In addition, the University of Michigan is to release revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.


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