Global Market Wrap: Gold and Oil Advancing During Asian Session

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Global Market Wrap:

Gold and Oil Advancing During Asian Session

Equity Futures: Dow +35.00. S&P +3.50. NASDAQ +6.00. Japanese Nikkei -50.00. German Dax +16.00

The stock market in Australia was seen advancing at the start of the new trading week. Meanwhile, the Japanese stock markets were closed on Monday for a bank holiday. With the exchange closed perhaps this will give the Nikkei an extra break. The index has spent the past four weeks in a pretty steep decline, losing nearly 1000 points in the process. There was no major news released during the session.

Trade Plan of the Day: TheLFB Trade Plan is EUR\/USD, one of the six that are available to members on the major pairs each day, plus four Jpy based cross pairs, S&P futures, oil, gold, and the dollar index.

TheLFB Charting: Gold Elliott Wave view
4 Hour chart trend: Long. Main price points: 1152, and 1100. Looking for: Wave 5) top

Gold is currently trading 15 dollars below its latest 1152 highs, where a Long blue wave V, of a larger red wave 5) top, may be in place. If this is the case then the market should trade lower over the coming sessions. A break through the lower support line of our trading channel will signal for a Short move towards the 1100 support zone (wave IV area).

Any break of 1100 support will confirm a bearish reversal.

TheLFB Charting: S&P Futures Elliott Wave view
4 Hour chart trend: Long. Main price points: 1082, 1105, 1115, 1120. Looking for: Wave C top
 
S&P futures found a top around the 1112 area in this week; just 3 points below our pre-set 1115 target, where the Long, wave V), may be complete. We can clearly count five black waves up from the red wave B low, which suggests that wave C may be trading around the top.
 
After every five wave move, a three wave correction is expected, so a move lower on the S&P, near to the 1082 support zone should not be a surprise technically. If this follows through, traders may see some dollar buying in the near-term, which will pull the euro away from the major $1.50 level, at the same time that the 74.70 dollar index low holds. These markets are all inter-connected at the moment, with a 90%+ correlation between S&P and dollar index trade.
 
A bearish confirmation on S&P futures hits if there is a short breakout of 1082.

 TheLFB Charting: EUR\/USD Elliott Wave view
4 Hour chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 1.4800, and 1.5000. Looking for: Two scenarios

The Eur/Usd pair made a strong retracement on Wednesday from the 1.4800 support region, near to wave B)/II) highs. The market however, is still trading below the 1.5000 philological level and 1.5062 yearly highs, which means that both scenarios presented below are valid.

First scenario

From this area, euro may start to trade higher again, through the 1.5062 zone, following the A), B), C) corrective count in red II/B shown on the 4 hour chart. To confirm this, the market needs to trade above the black wave B)/II) 1.5000 area, while the 1.4807 holds.

Second scenario

The market is still trapped in the bear channel, so move lower into the powerful short black wave III may easily follow through if the 1.4800 support zone fails to hold as support. Break of 1.4807 support will put 1.4630 zone in play.