* WHO chief sets scene for declaration of full flu pandemic
* Says level 6 would be no cause at all for panic
* Top-level alert would trigger varied national responses
* Chan warns against over-confidence despite Mexican easing
(Adds details of what Phase 6 pandemic alert entails)
By Ben Harding and Laura MacInnis
MADRID/GENEVA, May 4 (Reuters) - The World Health
Organisation is likely to raise its flu alert to the top of its
six-point scale and declare a pandemic, its director-general
indicated in an interview published on Monday.
In remarks setting the scene for another alert increase, but
without saying when, WHO chief Margaret Chan warned against
over-confidence following a stabilisation in the number of new
cases of the H1N1 strain that has proved deadly in Mexico.
"Level 6 does not mean, in any way, that we are facing the
end of the world. It is important to make this clear because
(otherwise) when we announce level 6 it will cause an
unnecessary panic," she told Spanish newspaper El Pais.
"Flu viruses are very unpredictable, very deceptive ... We
should not be over-confident. One must not give H1N1 the
opportunity to mix with other viruses. That is why we are on
alert."
The WHO's pandemic phases reflect views about how a virus is
spreading, and not how severe its effects are.
Last week the United Nations agency raised the alert level
twice, from 3 to the current 5, in response to the sustained
transmission of H1N1 in Mexico and the United States.
Before issuing a level 6 alert, the WHO would need to see
the virus spreading within communities in Europe or Asia.
A declaration of a full pandemic would send a signal to
governments worldwide to institute their pandemic response
plans, which may include measures affecting hospitals, schools
or public events.
Phase 6 would also trigger increased support for developing
countries which lack the drugs, diagnostic tests, and medical
staff to respond appropriately to the flu that the WHO has said
could be especially dangerous for people with HIV/AIDS.
While the top-level alert would not have an automatic effect
on the world's flu vaccine production, the WHO is expected to
make an announcement alongside any such declaration to specify
whether manufacturers should switch from making seasonal to
pandemic flu vaccines.
In her remarks to El Pais, Chan said that weather patterns
could play an important role in how the flu continues to spread.
The southern hemisphere is about to enter winter, when seasonal
flu cases normally spike, the infectious disease expert said.
"We have to be very careful. No one can predict what is
going to happen when countries in the south have flu peaks and
this new one arrives -- which it is going to do, without a
doubt," she said.
On Sunday, a WHO spokesman said the relatively large number
of infections in Spain of what has been commonly known as swine
flu -- at 40, according to the WHO's count -- seemed to be
mainly "imported" cases involving people returning from Mexico,
the epicentre of the disease outbreak.
Chan echoed this and said that so far, there were not many
flu patients in Europe that have not been to Mexico or had
direct contact with those who had.
"It is true that the number is small, but because of that I
would say that we have not seen the full situation or the whole
picture of what is happening. The situation is evolving and the
virus is changing," she said.
Chan, who fought SARS and bird flu in her previous job as
Hong Kong's health director, said it was too early to predict
what proportion of the population would catch the new flu strain
after the European Union predicted 40 percent of the population
would become infected.
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