(Adds c.bank interventions)
By Gleb Bryanski
MOSCOW, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Russia's central bank devalued
the rouble for the sixth time this month on Monday and financial
markets are convinced more is in store as it bids to right an
economy stricken by the financial crisis and falling oil prices.
The bank has allowed markets to knock almost 14 percent off
the rouble since an Aug. 4 peak and 9 percent since Nov. 11,
when it began a series of mini-devaluations to protect its
dwindling foreign reserves and bolster economic growth.
A source at the bank said on Monday it had widened the
trading band again, allowing the rouble to weaken by another 30
kopecks to 33.45 against the dollar/euro basket .
Some dealers said the nomination of the central bank's chief
trader for a board position on Monday also suggested it was
happy with policy so far and could continue a drive to a weaker
rouble -- making exports more competitive going forward.
"The market is in such a state that it expects another
devaluation every day," said currency dealer Mikhail Spolokhov
from Nomos bank.
The rouble has depreciated as far in the past month as
economists had expected it to weaken during the whole of next
year -- in a Reuters poll in late November, the end-2009
forecast had been 33.44, end-2008 was 31.30.
"We are pleased to see the central bank accelerating the
devaluation, and expect to see more such moves before the end of
the year," Pharos Financial Group fund managers said in a daily
market comment.
Analysts view the rouble exchange rate as still undervalued
even after the devaluations and traders said the central bank
spent between $2.0 and $2.5 billion supporting the currency on
Monday.
Time is running out for the bank to make more moves, with
markets closing for a long New Year and Orthodox Christmas
holiday between Dec. 31 and Jan. 11.
BRAIN AND SOUL
On Monday, the central bank also recommended its chief
trader Sergei Shvetsov, 37, who oversees currency market
interventions as well as management of Russia's gold and forex
reserves, to become a new board member.
Shvetsov, who joined the central bank in 1993, has kept a
low public profile as head of an open market operations
department that has kept financial markets guessing on policy
throughout the global crisis.
"We all know that Shvetsov is a soul and brain of the
Russian currency market. He was always an intellectual driver of
the exchange rate policy and therefore unlikely this policy will
change," said Alexei Moiseyev from Renaissance Capital.
The central bank runs a managed float of the rouble, keeping
it stable against the basket, made up of 0.55 dollars and 0.45
euros. The rouble closely follows the price of oil, Russia's
main export commodity.
STICK AND CARROT
Some of the devaluation moves have coincided with dollar
weakness, masking the change for the general public which
focuses on the dollar/rouble rate .
A weaker dollar also masks the decline in Russia's gold and
forex reserves, still the world's third largest at $435.4
billion.
Even so, the rouble stood near three-year lows against the
dollar while fresh trade balance data suggested imports were
already hit by the weak rouble.
Interfax news agency said Russia's trade surplus shrank to
$7.1 billion in November, the smallest surplus since at least
January 2005. Imports were flat year-on-year, while exports
slumped by 27 percent, it said.
Officials say they have got currency speculation under
control compared with previous months when Russian and foreign
banks bet on the rouble's weakening and opened long foreign
currency positions.
For a FACTBOX on key rouble moves [ID:nROUBLEFAC]
(Additional reporting by Andrei Ostroukh; editing by Tony
Austin/Patrick Graham)
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