Get 40% Off
🚨 Volatile Markets? Find Hidden Gems for Serious OutperformanceFind Stocks Now

WRAPUP 1-Czechs cut rates, Poles eye zloty as crisis boils

Published 12/17/2008, 10:42 AM
Updated 12/17/2008, 10:45 AM

* Czech cbank cuts rates by 50 bps to 2.25 pct

* Polish finmin sees market risks to H1 2009 ERM-2 plan

* Polish cbank gov says could intervene to prop up zloty

By Adrian Krajewski and Jana Mlcochova

WARSAW/PRAGUE, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Czech policymakers cut interest rates and the governor of Poland's central bank said it may prop up the plunging zloty as emerging Europe struggled to fight back against the encroaching global economic crisis.

The worst hit of the European Union's larger ex-communist states, Hungary, must wait before returning to long-term bond issues, its central bank chief said, after a collapse in investor confidence since it took an IMF/EU bailout in October.

Once seen insulated from crisis due to low exposure to toxic U.S. debt, the region has seen growth falter, investors dump assets, and interbank lending freeze up due to the credit crunch and the recession in the euro zone.

Following bold rate cuts from global central banks and a smaller but growing wave of reductions in central Europe to stave off flagging growth, the Czech central bank cut interest rates by half a percentage point on Wednesday to 2.25 percent.

Czech central bank Vice-Governor Miroslav Singer said the economy was "significantly deviating from forecast" and downside risks pointed to more interest rate cuts. Of the six board members present, two voted for cuts of 75 and 100 basis points.

"What we are reacting to is driven by a drop in global demand. That is a phenomenon that includes implications for all three indicators (the crown currency, growth, and inflation)," Singer said.

3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads .

The decision, in line with expectations, took the main repo rate to its lowest level since July 2006 and below the euro zone's 2.5 percent. Some economists had expected a 75 basis point cut after the U.S. Federal Reserve slashed rates to zero on Tuesday.

The move followed easing in its peers -- ranging from a quarter point in Poland last month to Hungary's twin 50 basis point moves since a 3 percentage point hike in October -- as well as the ECB's 75 basis point cut earlier this month.

Analysts said more cuts would come, particularly as economists slash growth forecasts across the region from above 5 percent in many countries a year ago to as low as 2 percent for the Poles and Czechs and a recession for Hungary.

"There is a dawning realization that interest rates are going to be cut sharply, that the outlook for the real economies... is pretty dire," said Neil Shearing, an economist with Capital Economics.

POLISH EYES ZLOTY, EURO

In Hungary, Central Bank Governor Andras Simor said Hungary would have to rely on its $25 billion rescue package from the European Union, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank and treasury bills for financing. But it would take time before the market would take longer-term government debt.

In Poland, Finance Minister Jacek Rostowski said the government was sticking to plans to put the zloty in the precurser to the euro, the ERM-2 exchange rate mechanism, by mid-2009 but that market volatility could prompt a rethink.

3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads .

The zloty has underperformed other currencies in the region, losing 28 percent against the euro since July 31, largely due to investors from developed countries ditching emerging assets.

Those losses and turbulence in Hungary, have prompted Warsaw and Budapest to consider joining the euro zone more quickly than previously planned to shield themselves from crisis.

"Our goal is to enter ERM-2 in the first half of the next year," Rostowski told reporters. "We think the markets situation will stabilise by then. If not, we can delay this decision."

He was countered by Polish central bank Governor Slawomir Skrzypek, an ally of euro-sceptic President Lech Kaczynski, who said if the zloty were locked into a rigid ERM-2 band against the euro -- in which the central bank would have to defend it against swings against other currencies -- there would be risks.

"The currency's volatility brings many risks in the event of our ERM-2 membership," he said. "Political and economic elements point to the need for serious re-thinking of this decision."

Skrzypek also voiced unease about the plunging zloty, which has lost 28 percent since July 31 as western investors flee emerging markets, and said the bank may have to prop it up.

"I am not a supporter of forex interventions but such a need cannot be ruled out now," Skrzypek told reporters.

Skrzypek's comments failed to dent the zloty's fall and by 1335 GMT the currency traded at 4.12 against the euro, down almost one percent compared to late trading on Tuesday. The zloty hit an all-time high of 3.20 in late July.

3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads .

Analysts expect the Polish bank to cut by up to half a point at its Dec. 23 meeting to help prompt flagging growth after it began an easing cycle last month with a quarter percentage point cut. Its main rate is now 5.75 percent. (Writing by Michael Winfrey and Dagmara Leszkowicz; editing by Patrick Graham)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.