* Base metals ease but output cuts, stockpile plans
underpin
* Recession, data weigh; metals to struggle if shares fall
(Updates prices to midday)
By Nick Trevethan
SINGAPORE, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Shanghai copper prices fell
1.3 percent on Tuesday, and London futures also softened, but
metals shrugged off much of the doom and gloom that hit other
markets following more negative news about the world economy.
Oil extended Monday's 9.5 percent fall to a 3-½ year low
and equities markets tumbled following soft manufacturing data
from the U.S., Europe and China and news that the United States
fell into recession in December 2007.
But the weak data was blunted by news that a provincial
Chinese government planned to build a 1 million tonne base
metals stockpile, and continuing cutbacks by metal producers.
"It's pretty impressive that the metals didn't succumb to
the rot that hit other markets. Metals may have been shielded a
little by the Yunnan stockpile news," MF Global analyst Edward
Meir said.
"More important is the producer response. Miners have been
cutting output and scrapping any expansion plans on the drawing
board, all of which should be a precursor to a drawn-out basing
move next year." For a factbox detailing recent production cuts
and project delays, click:
London Metal Exchange copper for delivery in three months
fell $20 to $3,570 a tonne by 0410 GMT after slipping nearly 1
percent on Monday, while Shanghai's benchmark third-month
copper contract lost 360 yuan to 27,680 yuan.
Open interest across U.S. commodity futures fell 4 percent
in the week to Nov. 25 but the net long speculative position
across those markets rose almost 7 percent. For copper, the net
short position fell slightly to 16,097 lots from 16,244 the
prior week.
Attention now moves to U.S. auto sales data later on
Tuesday and factory orders and non-farm payrolls for November
towards the end of the week.
But Meir warned that more weak data would weigh heavily on
equities markets and base metals could crack if share prices
continued to tumble.
"If we see more losses in equities like Monday's, it will
be very hard for metals to hold support."
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 8 percent
on Monday.
Tin was likely to attract attention following the
announcement by China's Yunnan province that it would build a
100,000-tonne stockpile of refined tin, ore and semi-finished
products as part of its million-tonne plan that could cost
billions of dollars, to support local metals smelters.
Tin rallied 6 percent on the news on Monday, but settled
lower due to the lack of concrete details about the stocks
scheme. By 0410 GMT, the metal was quoted up $30 at $12,400.
LME zinc rose $4 to $1,170, but technical analysts pegged
the chances of a successful rally as slim.
"Downside pressure is consistent so rally success is
limited," Daryl Guppy, managing director of Guppytraders,com
said, adding: "The move below the trend line at $1,210 has a
downside target near support at $1,050."
Metals prices at 0410 GMT:
Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2007 Pct chg
08
LME Cu 3570.00 -20.00 -0.56 6670.00
-46.48
SHFE Cu* 27680.00 -360.00 -1.28 56880.00
-51.34
LME Alum 1720.00 -15.00 -0.86 2403.00
-28.42
SHFE Alum* 12195.00 -395.00 -3.14 18180.00
-32.92
COMEX Cu** 158.95 -1.40 -0.87 304.10
-47.73
LME Zinc 1170.00 4.00 +0.34 2370.00
-50.63
SHFE Zinc 9630.00 -130.00 -1.33 18950.00
-49.18
LME Nickel 9800.00 0.00 +0.00 26350.00
-62.81
LME Lead 1080.00 -20.00 -1.82 2550.00
-57.65
LME/Shanghai arb^ 1116
Dollar/yuan 6.8845 \ 6.8855
** 1st contract month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contact month for SHFE aluminium, copper and zinc
^ LME 3-m copper in yuan, including 17 pct VAT, minus SHFE
third month
(Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
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