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UPDATE 1-Indonesia cbank sees year-end inflation at max 6 pct

By   |  General News  |  Jul 20, 2010 10:52AM GMT  |  Add a Comment
 

* Inflation may hit top end of f'cast range - cbank dep gov

* Sees price pressure back to normal after Ramadan

* Demand for short-term debt remains strong in govt auction

BANDUNG, Indonesia, July 20 (Reuters) - A deputy governor of Indonesia's central bank said on Tuesday that year-end inflation may hit the top end of its forecast range of 4-6 percent, reinforcing market expectations of a rate rise this year.

Indonesia's central bank has repeatedly stressed that it saw no need to raise its key rate -- held at a record low of 6.5 percent since August 2009 -- this year as it expected year-end inflation to fall within its target range, whereas analysts have forecast a rate rise by the end of this year.

Deputy governor Hartadi Sarwono declined to answer questions from reporters on whether his remarks meant that the central bank would raise its key rate this year, saying the central bank was currently still studying the matter.

However results of a government debt auction earlier in the day showed firm demand.

Investors have piled into Indonesian stocks, debt and the rupiah currency, with bond investors predicting that any near-term rate hikes were likely to be small and reassured by finance ministry plans to review debt issuance thanks to a healthy fiscal position.

The central bank said in a statement after its monthly rate meeting on July 5 that inflation was likely to remain within its forecast range of 4-6 percent. This compared to results of a Reuters poll this month which predicted year-end inflation at 4.9 percent.

Annual inflation accelerated to 5.05 percent in June, the highest since May last year, as a prolonged rainy season pushed up food prices.

"Companies have already raised prices including food. We'll keep inflation at maximum 6 percent," Sarwono told reporters on Tuesday.

"Inflation is likely to return to its normal levels after Ramadan. There will likely be inflation pressure at the end of the year but it won't be as high as this month," Sarwono said. He did not elaborate.

Prices of basic food and clothing usually rise in the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan which begins in early August this year and during the Eid al-Fitr celebrations which mark the end of the fasting month. Indonesia is the world's most populous Muslim nation.

Bank Indonesia cut its key rate by a total of 3 percentage points between December 2008 and August 2009 to shield the economy from the global financial crisis. It has left it at 6.5 percent since then. ($1=9055 Rupiah) (Reporting by Adriana Nina Kusuma; Writing by Gde Anugrah Arka; Editing by Sara Webb)


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