Probing a key fibonacci retracement & the 100-day MA

The US Dollar Index has pared recent losses and is now probing a key fibonacci retracement (38.2%) and the 100-day MA. Overbought daily RSI & MACD along with hourly bearish divergence have induced profit-taking in energy (crude oil) & equity markets which have had strong inverse correlations with the Greenback. Dollar bears that had jumped on Geithner's misconstrued comments earlier in the week were further squeezed as the euro suffered it's largest one day drop in more than two months. Bearish comments by a German Fin Min and expectations that the ECB may accept QE policy after all, helped the dollar surge through the 10-day MA and a descending trend line. While FX markets should continue to follow developments in the global equity markets, if the US Index clears the 38.2% retracement/100-day MA, then the 20-day MA and 35-day EMA should provide decent resistance. If this counter-trend rally in the US Index begins to distribute, a sustained loss of 84.30 (former resistance) will expose the 200-day MA.