A devastating earthquake off the coast of Japan on March 11th triggered a tsunami so powerful, that over 8000 miles away it knocked off a section of the Sulzberger ice shelf in Antarctica the size of Manhattan.
Last week's decision by the Swiss National Bank to put a floor under the Swiss Franc at 1.20 Euros not only moved the EUR/CHF more than 1000 pips in under an hour, but may well have effects on the Japanese Yen. The reason for this is that many suspect the Bank of Japan will be the next to intervene in the value of their currency.
While 1.20 may have been the SNB's target for the EUR/CHF, in reality the pair overshot that level, completing a perfect 38-to-138 Fibonacci pattern. It is amazing how, even during unpredictable fundamentally-driven events, price still moves according to technical rules.
[see chart #1]
Looking at the Japanese Yen, fear of intervention had established a solid floor at 76.60 against the US Dollar for several weeks (also a long-term Fibonacci level), however the currency's status as a "safe haven" made it difficult for the pair to get above its 21-period exponential moving average and find support there - until the SNB's announcement triggered fears that the BOJ will follow with its own intervention.
The USD/JPY dropped below that critical 77.19 support level today, indicating that the range between 76.60 and 77.63 remains in force. If price falls much below 76.60, we most likely will see some sort of action from the BOJ. If, however, we see a daily close above the daily 21 EMA at 77.19 followed by a breach of the 77.62 resistance level, it could well be the beginning of a rally that takes us first to the weekly 21 EMA at 78.88, with a possible secondary target at the next long-term Fibonacci level at 80.95
[see chart #2]
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